Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike still looks some way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. A rate hike is likely in 2014, but tightening is unlikely to be aggressive. 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper The markets are obsessing about whether the Fed will begin to reduce its monthly asset purchases at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (18th September). All things... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won't ignore wider measures of labour market slack By choosing the unemployment rate as its threshold for forward guidance, the MPC has been criticised for using a fairly narrow measure of slack in the labour market. However, we doubt that this will... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What next for the Egyptian pound? Following the recent strengthening of the Egyptian pound, we have revised our year-end forecast for the currency. But in this Watch, we explain why we still think that, over a longer horizon, the... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence & Economy Watchers’ Survey (Aug.) The ongoing falls in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers’ Survey (EWS) indicate that confidence in "Abenomics" has faded. While other surveys remain at strong levels, the EWS has a better... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) The upward revision to Q2 GDP growth strengthens the case for the government to press ahead with the consumption tax hike. However, the ongoing large reliance on consumer and government spending... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fannie, Freddie and financial repression The proposed winding down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-owned mortgage finance companies, is normally framed in terms of protecting taxpayers from having to pick up the tab in the... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling current account surpluses are not to be feared Current account deficits in India and Indonesia have rightly caused some concern, but elsewhere in Asia the trend towards smaller current account surpluses should be welcomed. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can retailers rebuild their margins? The outlook for retailers’ costs is brighter than it has been for many years. That said, with only a weak recovery in household incomes in prospect and competitive pressures likely to intensify... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rate cut is probably a one-off We do not think that today’s unexpected interest rate cut by the Mexican central bank signals the onset of an aggressive easing cycle. Indeed, with forward-looking indicators suggesting thateconomic... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes balance between optimism and support President Draghi walked a tightrope today in acknowledging the nascent recovery while at the same time trying not to raise markets’ interest rate expectations. We think that he will fulfil his pledge... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: solid start to Q3 could delay monetary easing Today’s IMACEC activity indicator revealed that Chile’s economy picked up pace at the start of Q3. This is unlikely to signal a turn in the economic cycle following two quarters of slowing growth, but... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No-change decision could mask split vote The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unsurprisingly left policy on hold today in the wake of its recent introduction of forward guidance on interest rates and the stronger economic news. But if markets... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Central bank in Malaysia to hike rates next year Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We expect the BNM to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year before hiking by 25bp as it looks to reduce... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan reiterates support for consumption tax hikes Governor Kuroda today underlined the Bank of Japan’s view – already reflected in its economic forecasts – that the planned consumption tax hikes will neither derail the recovery nor prevent inflation... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic-Sep The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
