UK Economics Weekly MPC still likely to tread cautiously Mark Carney’s statement in his Mansion House speech on Thursday evening that “the first rise in interest rates …could happen sooner than markets currently expect” looked like a pretty plain signal... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will focus on improving labour market GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates on hold at 4% in Chile and Peru Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged at 4% last night and we expect above target inflation to restrict the room for rate cuts in the second half of the year. On balance... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rumours of QQE's end have been greatly exaggerated Even though the BoJ left policy unchanged today and provided no indication that additional stimulus will be forthcoming any time soon, we think that it is premature to write off further easing. 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation and strong won to keep Korean rates on hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept interest rates on hold today, as was expected given the reasonable economic outlook and subdued inflation. We think rates will be kept on hold for a while yet, with the... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes to come in New Zealand The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its policy rate by 25bp for the third straight meeting today, as it continued the process of returning rates to more normal levels. We doubt that a... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch New projections may signal chance of earlier rate hike While the Fed is unlikely to alter its tapering plans or the main message of its forward guidance at the FOMC meeting due to conclude on Wednesday 18th June, its new economic projections may prompt... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia's financial stability risks can be kept in check The rapid rise in household debt levels coupled with strong house price growth is a key medium-term threat to Malaysia. With the economy now in good shape, the central bank (BNM) has scope to act pre... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) The share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE. Contrary to some suggestions, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank’s holdings can’t increase... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch “Third arrow” may trigger additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at the meeting that concludes on Friday (13 th June). We continue to expect more easing in October as it becomes clear that inflation... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Partial RRR cut illustrates reluctance to ease policy Details just published on the People’s Bank website about the targeted required reserve ratio cut that was first announced in late May underline how reluctant policymakers remain to pursue across-the... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still resisting calls for broad stimulus In the past few weeks, policymakers have adopted an approach to supporting the economy that is the opposite of that followed in 2008. Then, banks were encouraged to flood the economy with credit. Now... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still at the back of the pack While the ECB made a number of announcements last week, the policies involved are not as bold as they might seem. The interest rate cuts were clearly tiny and the decision not to sterilise bond... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What has the ECB done for us? On the face of it, the new policy measures unveiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) last week should have positive effects on the UK’s principal trading partner and hence on the UK’s own growth... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The deleveraging process is largely over The bulk of the necessary deleveraging process, especially in the private sector, appears to have been completed. This means that when the Fed starts to raise interest rates in the middle of next year... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
