US Fed Watch Fed waiting for data to break one way or the other With no scheduled press conference or forecast update at next week's FOMC meeting, expectations about the timing of the Fed's first rate hike will hinge on any changes to the accompanying statement... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank tinkers around the edges to defend lira The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates unchanged today, but managed to make its monetary policy framework even more complex by tweaking a few obscure tools in an effort to release... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) The minutes of April’s MPC meeting showed that the Committee has become slightly less concerned by the downside risks to the inflation outlook. But with inflation set to hover near zero for another... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack January rate cut won't be enough insurance The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Election set to have bigger market impact than previous ones Recent UK general elections have barely affected markets and this one has yet to have a material impact too. Nonetheless, we could still see a big movement in asset prices in this election’s wake. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation starting to firm Core inflation is beginning to show signs of firming. The rebound in the annual core CPI inflation rate to 1.8% in March may not be enough to leave Fed officials "reasonably confident" that inflation... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals further easing to come The communiqué accompanying today’s decision by the Hungarian National Bank to cut its two-week deposit rate by 15bp, to 1.80%, was very similar to last month’s and clearly indicated that another... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China will not stifle growth elsewhere China’s growth rate is set to slow a little further in the coming years. This will have a significant knock-on effect on some other emerging economies, but we think its overall impact on growth in the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Reasons to remain upbeat on Mexico Despite a recession in the mining sector and an impending fiscal squeeze, we remain upbeat about Mexico. A gradual improvement in the labour market and a likely recovery in the US, after a weak start... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC steps up policy support Sunday’s cut to the required reserve ratio for China’s banks signals a stepping-up of policy support. The 100bp cut was double the usual size and the first move on this scale since late 2008. It is... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada doubles down on growth outlook The Bank of Canada's policy statement last week showed that it isn't willing to fold on its optimistic growth predictions, despite being dealt a bad card in the first quarter. Instead, it decided to... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook More winners than losers The pace of global growth slowed in the first quarter, but it is likely to recover during the rest of the year and in 2016. The windfall gains from lower oil prices, rising employment and continued... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Feb./Mar.) The UK’s employment miracle shows no signs of drawing to a close. And with some slack still left in the labour market and pay growth not yet threatening the 2% inflation target, the MPC remains under... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the use of JGBs as collateral hamper QQE? Around 20% of all Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are currently used as collateral with the Bank of Japan or in private repurchase agreements. However, there are various ways to ensure that a... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: policy tightening not imminent Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night and despite the central bank adopting a relatively more hawkish tone than a couple of months ago in its statement accompanying the... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
