Global Economics Focus Can macro-prudential policies prevent bubbles? If policy-makers hope that macro-prudential measures alone will prevent asset price bubbles from occurring, they may well be disappointed. In principle, these regulations should be able to dampen... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB’s inflation headache goes from bad to worse The larger-than-expected rise in Brazil inflation in May leaves it on course to breach the upper bound of its target range over the coming months. This would be a major blow to the central bank... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ECB and what it means for Central & Eastern Europe Yesterday’s move by the ECB is another reason to think that monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will remain loose for longer than most people expect. However, the impact of the ECB’s... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB finally tackling deflation risks, but needs to do more The ECB unveiled an array of policies to boost bank lending and counter deflationary risks today. But there are uncertainties over how effective these policies will be. And while it is good news that... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no pressing need to tighten While the strength of the economic recovery may have pushed one or two MPC members closer to voting to raise interest rates at today’s meeting, we still think that the benign inflation outlook and a... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, although core inflation has turned out slightly firmer than expected, it is more concerned than... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC strikes a more dovish tone The Polish National Bank’s Governor, Marek Belka, was more dovish at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, and didn’t rule out the possibility of a cut in interest rates this year. However... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new measure of labour availability A new measure of the availability of labour places another question mark over the Fed’s belief that there is much more slack in the labour market than the unemployment rate suggests. This supports our... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts unlikely any time soon in India The central bank left interest rates unchanged today, as expected. Looking ahead, rate cuts are unlikely any time soon despite subpar economic growth as consumer price inflation remains high. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia set for an extended period of low rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, and once again said that it does not expect to make any changes in the near term. Given that the economy is likely to... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) Although the latest figures showed further signs of subdued growth in broad money and particularly bank lending, we doubt that this is a sign the economic recovery will lose steam soon. Indeed, it... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Gradual interest rate hikes to continue, for now Colombian policymakers have indicated that they expect interest rates to continue rising gradually over the coming months. As such, we are revising up our forecast. But with growth set to slow and... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (May.) A third successive pick-up in the official PMI provides further evidence that conditions in manufacturing are improving, thanks to warming foreign demand and a rebound in infrastructure investment... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are gilts priced for a slowdown? On the face of it, the steady fall in gilt yields this year suggests that markets might be expecting the economic recovery to lose some momentum soon or that safe-haven demand from overseas might have... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the ECB weaken the euro? While the ECB looks certain to implement further policy action at this week’s Governing Council meeting – probably in the form of an interest rate cut and measures to stimulate bank lending – this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cut and lending incentives unlikely to be enough A small cut in the ECB’s main refinancing rate seems like a done deal this month and is likely to be accompanied by a reduction in the deposit rate to below zero. The Bank also seems set to offer more... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
