Europe Economics Update Will the Greek economy ever return to normal? Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch September lift-off looking increasingly like a done deal We don't anticipate any major changes from the Fed at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 29th July. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC ends easing cycle, pledges loose policy Having cut its two-week deposit rate by a slightly larger-than-expected 15bp to 1.35% earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that no further rate cuts were likely. But at the same time, the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June data mixed, but Q2 GDP growth around 2.8% After a strong May, economic activity was more mixed in June. Nevertheless, it was still solid enough to re-affirm our view that the economy rebounded robustly in the second quarter. Even after the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek elections won’t ensure passage of bailout Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policymakers choke off the recovery? Over the coming months, the economy will have to absorb both a renewed fiscal tightening and the first rise in interest rates since 2007. But the public sector cuts will now be phased in more... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Cautious MPC still likely to wait until well into next year Interest rate expectations and the pound have both risen over the last month as stronger pay figures and signs that the US Fed is just a couple of months away from raising interest rates have... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal clears some hurdles, plenty left The plan for a third Greek bailout has cleared a number of hurdles over the last week, including provisional approval by the Greek and German parliaments. But there are plenty of obstacles yet to be... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s gold accumulation has further to go Today’s confirmation that China has added to its official holdings of gold since 2009 is not necessarily bullish for prices. This is buying that has already taken place and the increase was (arguably)... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour market performance after devaluations: lessons for Greece? Real wages have typically fallen sharply after a major currency crisis and devaluation but have then begun recovering within a couple of years. The pace at which they have picked up has varied... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying is the rise in unemployment? The surprise rise in unemployment revealed by last week’s labour market figures might be just a blip. However, the fact that both main measures of unemployment rose makes it harder to dismiss this as... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth to remain sluggish over medium term We expect Japan’s GDP growth rate to average under 1% over coming years, too slow for the Bank of Japan to take its foot off the monetary pedal any time soon. For financial markets, this is likely to... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi dovish, but cautious on Greece ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a distinctly dovish tone at today’s Governing Council meeting, reiterating the Council’s willingness to step up its QE programme if the economic outlook or... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the rest of the world hold the UK back? Although external threats to the UK economy have multiplied this year, we do not think that they are likely to derail the recovery. Indeed, the resilience of the UK’s economic recovery has shocked... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - 0.5% cut likely next step towards a new record low of 2.0% In a change to our previous forecast, we now expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates by 0.5%, to 2.75%, at the policy meeting scheduled for Thursday 23rd July and... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
