Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3) Ignore the larger-than-expected rise in headline CPI inflation in the third quarter, what really matters is that underlying inflation was weaker than the RBA expected. It probably wasn’t weak enough... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable? The rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds has continued unabated in recent days, but we think that this year’s strong gains may soon go into reverse. That alone would probably be enough to cause... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing Although the Bank of Canada gave no indication in last week’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, Governor Stephen Poloz freely admitted in his press conference that an... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) The recent softness in core CPI inflation could become a major concern for the Bank of Canada. The Bank was forced to cut its projection for inflation earlier this week in its new Monetary Policy... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) Data to mid-October show that inflation in Brazil is continuing to ease, which should provide room for another cut in interest rates at November’s COPOM meeting. 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Interest rates to be left unchanged until 2017 The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 27th October. Indeed, at its last meeting in September the Bank changed the wording in its policy statement from... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch No need for the Riksbank to loosen policy further Inflation has undershot the Riksbank’s forecastssince it last met to set policy in September. Butwe expect inflation to rise again before long, andwith economic conditions strong there is lesspressure... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals December QE extension President Draghi did not explicitly promise imminent policy action today. But he signalled that assetpurchases would not end abruptly. And as tapering has apparently still not been discussed, we... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end The Turkish MPC didn’t rule out a resumption of its easing cycle following the surprise decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, but for our part we think that further falls in the lira and... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing set to be gradual as Bank Indonesia cuts again Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to reduce its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% is unlikely to mark the end of its rate cutting cycle. However, further loosening is likely to be... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course The recent strengthening in the dollar and rise in Treasury yields are unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. The moves seen so far have been small, and with a December rate hike... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rate cuts to remain gradual, for now The decision by Brazil’s COPOM to cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by only 25bp (rather than 50bp), combined with a slightly less dovish accompanying statement than some had expected, reinforces... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains on the side lines The Bank of Canada gave no indication in today’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, even though it lowered its projections for GDP growth and now doesn’t expect the economy... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What does the new estimate of the neutral rate tell us? While the RBI is probably correct in suggesting that global neutral interest rates have fallen, this does not necessarily mean that India’s own neutral rate has fallen too, as the RBI suggested when... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
