Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) Flash manufacturing PMIs for December show continued steady growth in the eurozone and Japan, but they also underline how much the US manufacturing sector is struggling. That said, we doubt that this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone nose-dive? There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s monetary policy to stay loose throughout 2016 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today ahead of the upcoming US rate decision and amid signs of a stabilising domestic economy. With price pressures... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why commodity markets (still) shouldn’t fear the Fed We have of course addressed the potential impact of higher US interest rates on global commodity markets before. But with the Fed almost certain to hike tomorrow for the first time since 2006, now is... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals unconventional easing The accompanying press release to today’s MPC decision in Hungary, at which the deposit rate was left unchanged at 1.35%, was dovish and suggested that unconventional measures to loosen policy will be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The latest consumer prices figures confirmed that the UK’s brief flirt with deflation came to an end in November. But price pressures look set to remain subdued for a long while yet. Accordingly, the... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus MYEFO – Hiding a larger structural fiscal hole The decision by the Treasurer to use the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) to draw attention to the deterioration in the fiscal position triggered by the weak economic backdrop is one that... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Inflation slowdown to increase pressure on policymakers With economic activity recovering and underlying inflation holding up, there is little immediate pressure on the Bank to step up the pace of easing. However, we still believe that price pressures will... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa battered by self-induced crisis A recent series of unexpected cabinet reshuffles – in which South Africa had three finance ministers in four days – has dented the political and economic credibility of President Jacob Zuma. The rand... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening & EMs: what to watch for The likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this week has sparked fresh concerns about the knock-on impact on emerging markets. However, we think that most EMs are now well placed... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in November and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further over the coming months and return to positive territory by Q1 2016. 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed hike may trigger some temporary volatility in rates At this stage, it is almost universally expected that, after a seven-year period at near-zero, the Fed will raise interest rates this Wednesday. Like everybody else, we anticipate a 25 basis point... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Unconventional policy toolkit unlikely to be tested While we have long argued that the fallout from the oil shock would be disruptive and that hopes for an export revival were misplaced, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will need to resort to negative... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
