Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) Russian inflation once again surprised on the downside, falling to 6.1% y/y in October. This is unlikely to cause the central bank to change its mind, and interest rates will almost definitely be kept... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank takes centre stage The most noteworthy market developments last month were prompted by expectations of further policy loosening from Sweden’s Riksbank, with the krona depreciating sharply last month as a result... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt floats pound, currency falls by 30% against the dollar The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to finally adopt a floating exchange rate regime is a positive step and moves the government closer to securing a US$12bn financing package... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - 1.75% may not be the floor We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will follow through on its commitment for further policy easing by cutting interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 10 th... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for December rate hike As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it appears to be intent on hiking interest rates at the upcoming December meeting. Nevertheless, next week’s... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Baton passing to fiscal policy as BoJ reluctant to ease The Bank of Japan today pushed back the timing for hitting its inflation target and sounded alarmed about the recent moderation in price pressures, but nonetheless refrained from providing more... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chances of further cuts fading, but not disappearing The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates at 1.5% today may fuel some speculation that the next move in rates will be up, although not for a long time. That possibility... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interbank rates spike but don’t signal policy shift The renminbi dropped to a six-year low against the US dollar this month but it strengthened against most other currencies in the official currency basket. Meanwhile, although a jump in interbank rates... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What do lower equilibrium interest rates mean for asset prices? It is often argued that asset prices have been driven up by exceptionally loose monetary policy and that they are bound to come crashing down once central banks start to raise real interest rates back... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was Q3 as good as it gets for global growth? We estimate that world GDP growth accelerated slightly in the third quarter, due to the ongoing policyled rebound in China and a pick-up in activity in the US. However, the expansion will probably... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate left on hold in Sri Lanka, but further hikes likely Mexico’s economy grew by an impressive 1.0% q/q in Q3, the strongest rate since 2014. However, with growth being driven largely by the services sector and monetary policy set to tighten further, such... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How will EM currencies react to Fed tightening? Emerging market (EM) currencies have been stable in recent months, even as the likelihood that the Fed will tighten policy in December has grown. This supports our view that EM currencies will take... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Canada be more transparent? The mixed messages coming from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last week, which caused a stir in financial markets and the media, makes us wonder if, like most other major central banks, the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
