Japan Economics Focus Will population ageing help or derail efforts to boost inflation? Other things being equal, population ageing should boost price pressures. But that hasn’t happened in Japan because there has been an offsetting increase in the share of adults willing to work... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2 15, Prov.) The provisional estimate of Swedish Q2 GDP revealed that the economic recovery regained some momentum after the disappointing start to the year. But we doubt that it will prevent the Riksbank from... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Bigger risks to growth in Malaysia than 1MDB scandal The controversy surrounding the state investment company, 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), has intensified in recent days after Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has been accused of taking money from... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s money and credit figures showed a further pick-up in lending to households and the housing market recovery regaining some momentum. But there is little to suggest that consumers are embarking... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack African interest rates begin rise The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) finally began its long-awaited tightening cycle by raising the repo rate from 5.75% to 6.00% this month. We had anticipated the move, and expect that the SARB... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lower potential growth wouldn’t rule out rate cuts It looks as though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will break this year’s pattern of cutting interest rates at meetings that are followed by the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy by... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries remain vulnerable to tighter Fed policy Once the US FOMC has begun to raise its target for the federal funds rate, it is widely expected that subsequent increases will be very gradual, as the rate is only slowly returned to a more “normal”... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy to diverge sharply by the end of 2016 The uneven pace of growth in the developed world is likely to lead to a sharper divergence in monetary policy than most anticipate by the end of 2016. US rates look set to increase further than... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone monetary data point to a continued economic recovery, although they suggest that growth will not gather much more pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed closing in on lift-off, as economy enjoys Q2 rebound This week's FOMC meeting will be uneventful. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are based entirely on the incoming data, we wouldn't expect any heavy hints in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak growth hindering euro-zone’s fiscal progress Greece last week passed the necessary reforms to start negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout. But with the country back in recession, it will struggle to meet the creditors’ fiscal goals... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger GDP figures won’t rush the MPC The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Tuesday looks set to show that the economic recovery has re-gained some momentum. However, the recent strength of the survey data has not been borne out fully in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek deal brings sigh of relief Greece’s move towards a third bailout has brought relief to Central and South Eastern Europe where concerns about contagion were very real, particularly in the Balkans. While it is too early to say... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
