Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC strikes a dovish tone Today’s MPC statement from the governor of the South African Reserve Bank supports our nonconsensus view that policymakers will cut their key policy rate to 6.50% by the end of the year. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans not a big concern News that the Fed will proceed very cautiously in scaling back its huge balance sheet does not change our view that US monetary policy will be tightened more rapidly than the markets anticipate this... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further While the pound could fall again if the economy weakens or Brexit prospects worsen, there are good reasons to think that its recent appreciation can continue. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Introducing our Taylor Rules for Central and Eastern Europe The combination of strong growth and rising inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has shifted attention to when and how policymakers might respond. To help answer this, we’ve created Taylor... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea to keep rates unchanged for some time yet The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today and the governor’s accompanying press conference makes clear the central bank is in little hurry to adjust rates anytime soon. We continue to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory crackdown poses risks to growth, financial stability The ongoing regulatory crackdown on banks’ off-balance-sheet activities has contributed to the mild slowdown in growth we’ve seen recently. But it is also bringing into focus the challenges that China... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed plans to begin balance sheet normalisation with baby steps The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Fed intends to gradually phase out the reinvestment of maturing securities in its portfolio. The upshot is that the balance sheet will shrink more... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the outlook for rates shows that, despite strong economic growth and employment gains... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB tighten prematurely again? The ECB is edging towards ending asset purchases and raising interest rates. But there are good reasons to think that it won’t repeat the mistake that it made in 2011 of tightening policy too soon. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on prolonged hold With the economy gaining momentum and price pressure benign, it was no surprise that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today. Looking ahead, we expect the BoT to keep... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth remains at six-month low Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows growth stayed in April at the slowest pace in half a year. Looking ahead, as officials continue their efforts to rein in credit risks, we think activity will slow... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates, but hints that cuts are coming Nigeria’s central bank held its key rate on hold again, but we expect that policymakers will cut rates later this year as inflation slows and the economy remains weak. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro The euro’s recent appreciation against the US dollar appears to reflect better prospects for euro-zone growth and has occurred despite expectations that ECB monetary policy will remain very loose... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) After a sharp decline at the start of the year, net capital outflows have crept up again recently. Unless we witness another misstep on exchange rate policy though, outflow pressure should remain... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
