Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to stay loose Polish National Bank governor, Adam Glapinski, used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to indicate that interest rates are most likely to remain unchanged over the course of next year. But... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes support expectations of QE extension Today’s minutes showed broad support for an extension of the Riksbank’s government bond purchase programme. Combined with the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s victory in the US, an extension of... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation in October is likely to be followed up by further declines over the coming months. Accordingly, barring a sustained drop in the real – the currency is down by 2.5... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Trump’s victory mean for policymakers in Asia? The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today and is likely to be in little hurry to adjust monetary policy over the coming year. Elsewhere in the region, the increase in... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in food inflation has run its course Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in October, as the recent sharp slowdown in food inflation appears to have bottomed out. But with the central bank focused on supporting growth, the... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy in decent shape on eve of US elections Investor concerns about the outcome of the US presidential election have caused substantial currency and equity market movements in the past few weeks. However, the Vix “fear gauge” has not yet risen... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Oct.) The biggest decline in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves since the start of the year has more to do with movements in exchange rates and asset prices than sales by the People’s Bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What will Egypt’s pound float mean for inflation? The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to float the pound last week, coming alongside a raft of subsidy cuts, means inflation is likely to climb to more than 20% in the coming months. The impact is... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much inflation will the MPC tolerate? We think that the upward revision to the MPC’s inflation forecast was about the right magnitude. But for the Committee to respond to this – or a greater – overshoot of the target, domestic costs... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Markets need not worry about Trump too much Should Donald Trump pull off a surprise victory in Tuesday’s US Presidential election, equities, bond yields, commodity prices and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would probably all fall. But... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA’s tone is becoming more upbeat While the forecasts published in the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy have hardly changed since the August edition, the tone is much more balanced and could probably even be described as... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report presents sanguine economic outlook The unanimous decision by the MPC to leave interest rates and its asset purchases on hold in November did not come as a surprise given the continued run of upbeat news on the health of the economy... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
