Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay on prolonged hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, and while the consensus expects another rate cut in the coming months, we think rising concerns about Korea’s high household debt... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA, inflation and November The inflation figures for the third quarter would need to be much weaker than the Reserve Bank of Australia expects in order to prompt a cut in interest rates to 1.25% at November’s policy meeting... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A primer on China’s new monetary policy regime The People’s Bank has taken a major step towards a more orthodox approach to monetary policy by adopting a de facto target for the interbank rate. Although this shift has taken place with little... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fearsand the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fears and the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to hike rates again before December It is always possible that the Fed could surprise us with an unexpected rate hike next week, but we very much doubt that will happen, it just doesn’t fit Chair Janet Yellen’s more cautious style. At... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) A renewed pick-up in credit growth last month will add to the growing sense among investors that the near-term outlook for China’s economy is fairly bright. Credit growth is still likely to slow over... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled out The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but with growth set to slowand inflationary pressures very low, further easing is likely in the coming quarters. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, and is set to accelerate further over the near term. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation targeting – time for a change? The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to ignore suggestions that they should lower their inflation targets since that would drive inflation even lower. Targeting nominal GDP growth... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about low inflation expectations? As euro-zone inflation picks up over the coming months, short-term inflation expectations should rise.But long-term expectations are less responsive to movements in current inflation and are likely... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s stable CPI inflation rate is a temporary pause in an upward trend that should see it rise above the MPC’s target next year. But prospect of above-target inflation probably won’t stop the... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
