US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to cut interest rate forecast The Norges Bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting in June, but we think that it will revise its rate forecast down. After all, while economic growth has strengthened since the... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes surprisingly hawkish tone While an interest rate hike in the UK within the next few months still looks unlikely, the hawkish tone of June’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy decision and minutes supports our view that... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC ends tightening cycle but stays hawkish The Turkish central bank ended the recent tightening cycle today, but high inflation, strong GDP growth (this year at least), and hawkish comments from the MPC, mean that a shift towards interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Other major central banks in no hurry to follow the Fed The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates again yesterday does not change the big picture that global monetary policy will remain highly accommodative. We expect policy rates to stay close to zero in... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation and currency worries to keep Indonesian rates on hold Despite the poor growth outlook, Bank Indonesia left its policy rate on hold today at 4.75%. With inflation set to remain elevated over the coming months, the central bank is likely to be in little... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: the Gulf’s weak spots Recent comments from the IMF and ratings agencies have put the focus back on the weak balance sheets of the Gulf’s two smallest economies, Bahrain and Oman. We have warned for some time that both... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB keeps policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention if needed reflected the fact that inflation is still very low. With price pressures likely... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates and plans for balance sheet normalisation As widely expected, the Fed raised its policy rate target by an additional 25bp today, to between 1.00% and 1.25% and, despite the recent weakness of core inflation, Fed officials still expect to... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Regional recovery to continue, politics willing Latin America’s economy finally returned to growth in Q1 and the latest data suggest that the recovery continued in Q2. While domestic political developments are a key downside risk to the outlook, we... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland There is little sign that the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) expects to reduce interest rates further after today’s cut, but we think there is scope for a further appreciation of the króna to weigh on... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Bank profits have continued to shrink as lenders’ net interest margins have declined. However, non-financial firms are benefitting from rock-bottom borrowing costs and corporate bankruptcies remain... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in May will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to keep rates stable post-Fed and beyond The US Fed is poised to raise rates on Wednesday. When it last hiked back in March, the People’s Bank quickly followed suit. This time, however, we expect the PBOC to stay on hold and, indeed, to keep... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp drop in Indian consumer price inflation in May is likely to raise further questions about the RBI’s reluctance to loosen policy. But we think the central bank’s unwillingness to cut rates is... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
