Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tighter financial conditions won’t stop the Fed Although the tightening of financial conditions has persuaded the Fed to hold off from tightening monetary policy on several occasions over the past couple of years, we doubt that the recent surge in... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut Although the Canadian dollar has weakened further lately, financial conditions overall appear to be tightening now because of rising market interest rates and new stricter mortgage rules. Given the... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The continued softness in core consumer prices in October suggests that the downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate projection is growing, which is consistent with our view that an... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit weakness to deter interest rate cuts The Malaysian central bank confirmed today that it has been intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the ringgit, which is now close to its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Interest rates to stay on hold, despite weak Q3 GDP Chile’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.50% and, while GDP data released this morning showed that economic growth remained sluggish in Q3 at 1.6% y/y, we still think it would take a... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future With the yen weakening dramatically since the US election and incoming data showing GDP growth strong last quarter, there is now little pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease further. Less positively... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low Inflation is set to continue rising across Emerging Asia as the effects of past falls in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. However, we doubt the increase will be large enough to worry most... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely The 50bp increase in Mexican interest rates (to 5.25%) at today’s meeting was aimed at supporting the peso in the aftermath of the US election and it’s clear that further hikes are on the cards. We... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA Financial markets look to have jumped the gun by concluding that the chance of a further interest rate cut in Australia has all but vanished. We think that the weak outlook for wage growth may yet... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming Chair Janet Yellen’s remarkably bland prepared congressional testimony today did nothing to change our view that the Fed will hike interest rates at the upcoming mid-December FOMC meeting. Despite... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold at 4.75% and made clear that its focus is currently on maintaining a stable exchange rate rather than supporting the economy. With rate hikes in... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan moves one step closer to helicopter money With its first fixed-rate operation today in support of the new target for 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields, the Bank of Japan has moved closer to full-fledged helicopter money. There are... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will struggle to keep franc’s rise at bay The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) pledge to intervene in foreign exchange markets appears to havealleviated upward pressure on the franc in the wake of the US election. But experience has shown... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged rests on overly cautious assumptions for the króna and on fears about fiscal policy and capital controls that will probably not... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
