Europe Economics Weekly Growth supports to fade in 2016 The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2016: Surviving rate rises and an EU referendum After a slight wobble in the autumn, the UK economy seems to be ending 2015 on a more positive note. Growth this year is on course to have been about 2.4%. While weaker than 2014’s 2.9% growth rate... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, in the first half of December was driven by an increase in food inflation that should ease by mid-2016. Nonetheless, the risk of... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of our key calls for 2016 and beyond Advanced economies are likely to continue their steady recovery during the coming year or two, albeit with the euro-zone and Japan still lagging well behind the US and UK. Tighter labour market... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & Chile hike, but tightening cycles to be gradual Last night’s decision by central banks in Mexico and Chile to hike interest rates suggests that the actions of the US Fed still hold sway with policymakers in Latin America. Nonetheless, we suspect... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still has more to do The policy tweaks the Bank of Japan announced today are mainly aimed at ensuring that the existing volume of asset purchases can be maintained rather than constituting a genuine expansion in stimulus... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Taiwan’s rate cutting cycle over? Today’s decision by Taiwan’s central bank (the CBC) to cut its main policy rate by 12.5 basis points to 1.625% reflects concern over the current weakness of the economy. Looking ahead, we are... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What are the implications of US oil export restrictions being lifted? It now seems likely that the US will relax its restrictions on oil exports before the end of the year. However, the impact on prices should be negligible given the US’s continuing need to import oil... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates early next year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets continue to react well to Fed rate hikes? The positive reaction of many riskier assets to Fed “lift-off” supports our view that they will perform well in 2016. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to keep feet firmly on the ground despite Fed “lift off” The US Fed’s decision to finally press ahead and raise interest rates yesterday begged the question ofwhether the MPC will quickly follow suit. However, in the near term, the only British mention of... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are commodity markets right to shrug off the Fed? The muted responses in commodity markets to the first hike in US interest rates since 2006 are atribute to the clear communications of the Fed and, in our view, largely justified. Looking forward... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals rate cuts next year The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
