Europe Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2016 In our first India Watch of 2016, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. The lagged effect of earlier policy loosening and weakness in global commodity prices should... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A year of zero inflation December’s euro-zone consumer price inflation rate of +0.2% left an average inflation rate for 2015 as a whole of zero – the lowest rate since the single currency was formed. Headline inflation will... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Brazil In response to the deepening economic and political crisis in Brazil we are marking down some of our key forecasts. We now expect interest rates to be raised further, the currency to weaken a little... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) December’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures supported our view that bolder ECB policy action will ultimately be needed to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis. 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda fails to launch in 2015 On the face of it, 2015 has been a decent year for the Indian economy. Admittedly, activity indicators are pointing to a slow and bumpy recovery, but conditions have undoubtedly improved following... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack ASEAN Economic Community is no game changer The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 15) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt edging closer to pound devaluation The Egyptian central bank has found itself in the spotlight this month, as attention has (re-)focussed on the country’s fragile external position. The appointment of Tarek Amer as governor had already... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank holds fire, plays a dangerous game The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold, when hikes had been widely anticipated, will probably result in renewed concerns that the MPC’s decisions are being swayed by... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households unprepared for what comes next We fear that households are utterly unprepared for the normalisation of market interest rates that began with the US Fed’s historic lift-off last week. Canada’s economy has long been overly reliant on... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Wholesale Sales (Oct.) The increase in annual headline inflation to 1.4% in November, from 1.0%, was largely as expected given the diminishing drag from lower energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation remained close to the 2... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
