Global Economics Update Risk of deflation still confined to euro-zone and Japan Fears of a period of widespread deflation look misplaced, in our view, despite the recent fall in oil prices and China’s devaluation. Domestic forces will continue to be the key drivers of inflation... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: chance of rate hikes growing A sharp fall in its currency, rising inflation and a widening current account deficit have increased the chance that Colombia’s central bank will tighten monetary conditions in the coming quarters... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to be supported by central banks’ buying In the last month, China has added a further 19 tonnes to its official holdings of gold. This supports our view that China’s gold accumulation will continue and that official purchases will be one of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC strikes hawkish note, unveils new policy plans The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its benchmark rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement struck a hawkish note in response to the latest fall in the lira. In addition, the Bank’s... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) The small rise in CPI inflation from 0% to 0.1% in July merely reflected the slightly earlier conclusion of summer discounting of clothing this year compared to last and so has little bearing on the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: rate hike next month not yet a done deal We appreciate that we’re going out on a limb in saying this, but we don’t think that an interest rate hike next month in Mexico is necessarily the done deal that many now seem to assume. Indeed, a... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Defending currencies ultimately futile Many African central banks are running down scarce foreign exchange reserves in a doomed effort to defend overvalued currencies from painful adjustments. But with commodity prices likely to remain... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Another look at Asia’s exposure to China The last week has been dominated by concerns that the People’s Bank of China was embarking on a competitive devaluation of the renminbi and fears that the Chinese economy might be heading for a “hard... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A storm in a China teacup? Headlines have recently been captured by last week’s shock move by the People’s Bank of China to lower the daily reference rate for the renminbi. However, we doubt that this will have much bearing on... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed last quarter, dragged down by a fall services exports and subdued consumer spending. Looking ahead, we expect growth to remain weak in the coming quarters as exports... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile and Peru still happy to hold fire Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged yesterday and policymakers in both countries are still giving little indication that they expect to tighten monetary policy anytime soon... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Negative inflation will return soon CPI inflation probably held steady at zero in July, but the recent fall in oil prices suggests that the UK is likely to experience another bout of negative inflation before the end of the year... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in the Philippines to remain on hold for a while yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its policy rate on hold at 4.0%. With growth set ton recover in the coming quarters, but inflation likely to remain low, we think the central bank... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek GDP (Q2, Prov.) Q2’s Greek GDP figures brought some rare good news. But they relate to an entirely different economy than the one currently being strangled by capital controls. 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RMB set to stabilise as PBOC counters devaluation claims Today’s PBOC press conference supports our view that the fall in the renminbi as a result of the shift to a new reference rate mechanism was a one-off and not an attempt to engineer a large scale... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay on hold for a while yet The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today, despite talk of a fresh round of "currency wars" across Asia following the People's Bank of China's decision to... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
