Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong domestic demand helping to offset weak exports Regional GDP growth held steady at just under 4% last quarter, with buoyant domestic demand again helping to offset weak exports. With subdued global growth set to continue holding back exports, the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ set to taper its JGB purchases A further rise in global government bond yields may put the Bank of Japan’s yield target under pressure but we nonetheless believe the Bank will be able to reduce its asset purchases next year while... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation continued to climb in the first half of November, rising to 3.3% y/y from 3.1% y/y over the whole of October. And, following the sharp depreciation of the peso over recent weeks, we... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but rhetoric turns hawkish Today’s press conference saw the SARB leave rates on hold but take a notably hawkish tone.Policymakers seem to be rowing back their claim that the tighten cycle is coming to an end. 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Political developments take centre stage Political developments have taken centre stage over the past month. Aside from Donald Trump’s election victory, most attention in Asia has focused on Korea, where President Park Geun-hye is clinging... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in South Africa picked up from 6.1% y/y in September to 6.4% y/y in October, but we still expect that the SARB will keep its key policy rate on hold this week. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold throughout 2017 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% suggests that it is more worried about supporting the weak currency than boosting the sluggish economy. Looking... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates in face of “stagflation” Today’s MPC statement makes it very clear that the CBN is unwilling to hike interest rates in the face of inflation that is more than double the official target. The next move will probably be down. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year Swedish inflation is set to rise sharply over the next year. As such, the Riksbank’s intention to loosen monetary policy further seems like a mistake and any additional interest rate cuts will have to... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China last month were the largest since January’s panic over the renminbi. While markets appear more at ease about the trajectory of renminbi... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off Financial markets across the emerging world have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month. This partly reflects... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
