Latin America Economics Update Chile: MPC divided, but rates to remain on hold Chile’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 3.50%, although the MPC appears to be divided over whether to flag rate cuts or not. For now, we expect signs that the economy is recovering keep... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC going soft on inflation? Apparent concerns in the bond market that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has gone soft on inflation look overdone. We expect the forthcoming rise in inflation to be transitory. But if it isn’t... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although headline CPI inflation increased to a two-year high of 1.5% in September, the more modest gain in core consumer prices suggests that underlying price pressures are building only very... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) The rise in CPI inflation in September – to its highest level in almost two years – is likely to fuel market concerns about the upward impact of the pound’s fall on prices. However, we don’t think... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The fall in CPI inflation to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.4% in the second quarter is in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and means the Bank will follow through on its suggestion that interest rates... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Bank lending picked up in September and a broader measure of private sector credit expanded at the fastest pace since the launch of QQE in Q2. Meanwhile, low returns at home have encouraged Japanese... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB won’t hike rates for some time yet Fears that domestic price pressures might prompt the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy proved unfounded today as it left its interest rate target at 0.25%. The Bank’s tone was gloomier... 16th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising labour participation a dilemma for the Fed The marked slowdown in the rate at which the remaining slack in the labour market is being absorbed poses a big dilemma for the Fed. The standard unemployment rate has now been broadly unchanged at 5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Q3 data point to fairly slow growth Recent official activity data for the euro-zone have been fairly encouraging. Coupled with the unofficial survey evidence, they suggest that the region’s GDP growth might have maintained its pace or... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Interest rates to rise by more than most expect The Peruvian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% didn’t come as a surprise, but we expect a pick-up in inflation next year to trigger more rate hikes than the consensus... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will remain on the sidelines this year The Bank of Canada is unlikely to announce any major changes to either its economic projections or policy stance next Wednesday. The apparent rebound in third-quarter GDP and the surge in employment... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia to signal continued commitment to fiscal discipline The Malaysian government is likely to prioritise maintaining fiscal discipline over supportingthe weak economy at its upcoming budget. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in September, but we expect it to resume accelerating over the coming months. The big picture is that there is still little room for further policy... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Singapore to stay unchanged for some time The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its monetary policy settings unchanged, having loosened policy at its last meeting in April. With the economy set to exit deflation over the coming... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Preparing for a December QE extension The ECB’s Governing Council is unlikely to unveil any policy changes at its forthcoming meeting on 20th October. But we expect it to prepare the ground for an extension of its Asset Purchase Programme... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
