Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut rates again As we expected, the Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate from 0.75% to 0.50% today, admitting that the economy fell into a mild recession in the first half of the year. We have been warning that... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen reiterates that lift-off still likely later this year Fed Chair Janet Yellen's latest comments don't change our view that the Fed is still on track for a September lift-off. Furthermore, we expect rising wage growth and core inflation to trigger a much... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: interest rate hikes still some way off Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night and the more dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our long-held view that rate hikes are still some way off. We do not... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will have to step up pace of easing before long Despite some small adjustments, the Bank of Japan’s interim forecasts today reveal that policymakers remain upbeat about the outlook. But weak economic activity and the prospect of a prolonged period... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek “deal” still has major hurdles to clear While yesterday’s announcement of an agreement to provide Greece with a third bailout was greeted with understandable relief, there are still very big hurdles to be cleared before the deal is... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The seemingly inexorable rise of Nigerian inflation – which reached a 28 month high of 9.2% y/y in June – will add to the pressure on the central bank to raise interes trates later this year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates before the end of the year With inflation still well above target, today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave its main policy rate on hold at 7.50% was no great surprise. While we think rates will stay on hold in the... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate below zero in June vindicated the Riksbank’s decision earlier this month to cut its policy rate further and extend its bond-buying programme. But we think... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun. 15) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate below zero in June vindicated the Riksbank’s decision earlier this month to cut its policy rate further and extend its bond-buying programme. But we think... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise in consumer price inflation was primarily the result of a sharp fall in food prices a year ago rather than any recent increase in inflation pressures. It should not put the Reserve Bank... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Weak shilling prompts rate hike Today’s decision to hike interest rates by 150bp reflects the Bank of Uganda’s concerns about currency weakness. But with export prices subdued and political risk rising, we expect that the shilling... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Long-term outlook still positive Kenya has been in the headlines for all the wrongreasons over the past few months, and its economy is struggling. But while the country faces realproblems, we still believe that the economy holds... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Could the BoJ delay the 2% inflation timeframe yet again? The slowdown in economic activity in Q2 has dented hopes of an imminent strengthening of price pressure. The Bank could simply push the timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target back yet again... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed lift-off won't be delayed by Greece or China Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday this week couldn't have been better timed for those wondering whether Greece's potential exit from the euro would... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
