Global Markets Focus Shifts in global savings and their implications for US Treasuries The unusual stability of long-term US Treasury yields during the last Fed tightening cycle between 2004 and 2006 has been attributed to a glut of global savings. We are not convinced by this... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep interest rates on hold for a while yet Despite low inflation and a recent run of weak activity data, today’s decision by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) to keep its key policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as no big surprise. Looking... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in October suggests that the Riksbank will need to put any lingering concerns about household debt to one side and increase its monetary policy support in... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The strength of Australia’s labour market in October builds on other evidence that suggests the economy has made some big leaps forward in recent months. It diminishes the chances of further rate cuts... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Oct.) Although France’s headline inflation rate ticked up in October, price pressures across the euro-zone’s core economies remain very weak, supporting the case for more policy support from the ECB. 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to hold rates through 2016 With the domestic economy showing signs of recovery, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We expect the BoK to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2015... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in October suggests that the Riksbank will need to put any lingering concerns about household debt to one side and increase its monetary policy support in... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Sep./Oct.) Labour market activity is still looking quite healthy. But the slowdown in wage growth in the latest figures confirmed that an interest rate rise is still some way off. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Volatile food prices aside, price pressures were largely stable in October. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to edge higher in the coming months. But the window for further interest rate cuts will... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Closer than it looks Downgrades to the Bank of England’s inflation projections in its Inflation Report last week were widely anticipated. Nonetheless, sterling’s tumble against the dollar and the euro after its release... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment not unusually low The current level of business investment is not unusually low, with firms opting to use funds to pay dividends or buy back equity instead. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean the outlook for business... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in October confirms that the weakness in August and September was just a temporary blip and, given the circumstances, a December... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB can’t rely on Fed to do its work With the composite euro-zone PMI pointing to steady growth and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen pushing the euro down to a four-month low against the dollar, further policy loosening by... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, the PiS and a populist shift Last month’s Polish election heralds a shift towards more populist policymaking under Law and Justice (PiS). In this Watch, we look at which areas are most likely to see a shift in policy and what the... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR be a game-changer? Although the addition of China’s currency to the SDR basket may provide a short-term boost for the renminbi, its appeal as a reserve asset will be constrained by lack of convertibility and liquidity... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to accelerate again Inflation is likely to have risen in October, as the favourable base effects that helped to anchor food inflation in recent months continue to fade. With inflation expectations also edging up, there... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
