BoE Watch Inflation Report could warn markets have gone too far We expect mixed messages from this month’s Inflation Report. On the one hand, a lower profile for inflation over the next few months is likely to confirm that interest rates will not rise until well... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed leaves door open to December rate hike The post-FOMC meeting statement released today certainly leaves open the possibility that the Fed will hike interest rates at the next meeting in December. Nevertheless, we still think that the Fed is... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money aggregates growing steadily Monetary conditions remain highly accommodative in most advanced economies, notwithstanding the rise in corporate bond yields since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, broad monetary aggregates are... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB really cut rates even further? While we have argued for some time that the ECB will expand its asset purchases in December, we now expect it to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory too. This seems unlikely to have... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might strong US GDP data mean for equities? With the FOMC almost certain to leave interest rates on hold later today, the event which is perhaps more likely to move US markets this week could be the advance (first) estimate for Q3 GDP... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch A lot more easing to come The US Fed now looks likely to leave interest rates unchanged until next March before tightening policy more rapidly than the markets anticipate. Many other major central banks, meanwhile, are still... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed to hike more than expected, but global fallout to be limited While the FOMC meeting will surely conclude today with no change in policy, we continue to expect US interest rates to be raised more than the markets anticipate in 2016 and beyond. Nonetheless, this... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak inflation expectations add to pressure on ECB The dovish stance taken by the ECB in recent weeks has partly reflected its fear that inflation expectations have become unanchored from the near-2% target. Such concerns are justified, supporting... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Another interest rate cut shouldn’t be ruled out Financial markets are going cold on the prospect of another rate cut from the Bank of Canada. The Bank has already cut rates twice this year in response to the oil shock. Although the economy may no... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US interest rates just one factor driving commodity prices The conventional wisdom is that the outlook for US interest rates will be critical in determining the prospects for commodity prices over the next few years. Indeed, some commentators seem to base... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Vietnam and Bangladesh exports bucking the trend Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Cote d’Ivoire & Tanzania: Peaceful elections a welcome sign Peaceful elections held earlier this month in Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania were welcome signs of improving institutions in both countries. While final results haven’t been announced yet, the fact that... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Kneejerk reaction to rising mortgage rates unlikely The tightening in monetary conditions triggered by the recent rises in mortgage rates by the major banks and the strengthening in the dollar is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
