Global Central Bank Watch Needle shifting slowly towards tighter policy Policymakers in the world’s major central banks have struck a more hawkish tone in recent weeks, but we expect policy to be tightened only in the US this year. While the ECB may announce plans to... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to stay low in Thailand With the economy showing signs of recovery and inflation back within its target band, the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today came as no surprise. Looking... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Out of the woods? Evidence of a sharp turnaround in growth and policymakers’ success in preventing a destabilising slide in the renminbi have underpinned a dramatic shift in sentiment towards China. But there are good... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC’s sterling conundrum The Monetary Policy Committee might be relieved to see the pound regaining a bit of ground in recent weeks. But it shouldn’t want the exchange rate to rise too far. 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI may have to tighten soon In light of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalling the end of the loosening cycle in its most recent policy meeting in February, most analysts are now expecting the central bank to keep rates on... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana doubles down on rate cuts, Kenya will follow in H2 The Bank of Ghana’s sharp rate cut suggests that policy loosening will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We’ve revised down our end of year rate forecast from 20.00% to 18.00%. The... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlook for monetary policy in Sweden and Norway Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank starts slow but lengthy easing cycle Having cut the one-week repo rate by 25bp earlier in the day, Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used her post-meeting press conference to stress that further monetary easing will be... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte undermining reform prospects in the Philippines Struggles to push through much-needed tax reform in the Philippines are the first sign that President Duterte’s controversial war on drugs and offensive behaviour is undermining the efforts of his... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka hikes rates, further tightening likely Today’s 25bp rate hike by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. A combination of rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh Saudi devaluation fears look wide of the mark The recent dip in oil prices has raised concerns in some quarters that the Saudi authorities may devalue the riyal, but we find this highly unlikely. Indeed, the probability that the dollar peg will... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
