US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 5.0% in September butbank loans are still expanding at a healthy 7.7% clip. 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ likely to announce more stimulus on Friday The recent rebound in underlying inflation provides a reason for the Bank of Japan to stand pat at Friday’s meeting, but not a compelling one. With the economy back in recession and the tight labour... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bigger fiscal expansion may eventually be needed Canada’s growth outlook is one of the weakest among G7 members and other advanced economies. Low commodity prices are the main reason for this. With falling business investment weighing the economy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus, plus a dash of reform The People’s Bank has delivered another jolt of stimulus in the form of cuts to both benchmark interest rates and the required reserve ratio. Deposit rates have also now been fully liberalised, an... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are negative interest rates effective? This week’s news that the ECB discussed cutting its deposit rate further below zero has revived discussion of the limits to, and effects of, negative interest rates. Their use by several European... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to play a more pivotal role in the policy debate Our forecast that underlying inflation in Australia will fall below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range next year suggests that inflation will soon start to have a bigger influence on policy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB all but promises more support in December While the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, President Draghi gave even stronger-than-anticipated signals that the QE programme will be expanded in December. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay first rate hike until early 2016 It is highly unlikely that the Fed will spring a surprise rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 28th October, and even the odds of a hike at the December meeting have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revival in consumer spending remains elusive Despite the tailwinds of low inflation and reductions in interest rates over the past few months, consumer spending in India remains subdued. This is due in large part to continued problems in the... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Pausing for breath Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will probably leave interest rates on hold at 2.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 29 th October, this will just be a pause in the loosening cycle... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Brighter times may lie ahead for emerging market assets We think the future for most emerging markets is brighter than generally believed. Their poor performance has been a function of close ties with troubled China, heavy reliance on exports of... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 0.50% was as expected given that the economy most likely returned to positive growth in the third quarter. The uncertain outlook, however... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC belatedly acknowledges dire inflation outlook The Turkish MPC left its key interest rates unchanged today, but the accompanying press release suggests that the Council may finally have recognised that inflation is set to rise further. This... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 4.6% y/y, coming alongside the recent rally in the rand, makes next month’s Reserve Bank rate decision a close call. But with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC pledges to keep policy loose for longer The National Bank of Hungary’s MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.35% earlier today, but the Council used the accompanying press release to commit to keeping interest rates on hold at... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
