Asia Chart Pack Risk of “Grexit” hangs over Asia’s export outlook The direct links between Emerging Asia and Greece are very limited. Exports to Greece account for only a tiny proportion of regional GDP, while banking sector ties are negligible. What matters more... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private consumption after a currency crisis Contrary to conventional wisdom, economic recoveries following a large devaluation have not always resulted from a surge in net exports. Instead, they have often been driven by rising consumption... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What can policymakers do now? The failure of Saturday’s policy moves to lift equity prices for more than a few minutes at the start of trading today has focused attention on what else policymakers might do to support the markets... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Rate hikes to add to pressure on South Africa’s economy April’s activity data hinted at an uptick in South Africa’s economy, but we believe that thecontinent’s most developed economy will continue to face significant headwinds over the comingmonths. Growth... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again? Although there is limited scope to reduce interest rates further, the hit from lower oil prices on the economy is taking a heavier toll than widely acknowledged. Without any offset from the non-energy... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to pick up as oil price effect fades EM inflation is set to accelerate in the months ahead as downward pressure from thefall in oil prices late last year unwinds. This will ease concerns about deflation in anumber of EMs, including China... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Ringgit weakness to deter policy loosening in Malaysia The Malaysian ringgit has been Emerging Asia’s worst-performing major currency over the pastyear. While a weak ringgit should bolster Malaysia’s exports, it also poses a threat to financialstability... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hawks ruffling feathers but rate hike still a way off Given the air of uncertainty hanging over Europe, it is perhaps surprising that markets haverecently brought forwards their expectations for the timing of the first hike in official interest ratesin... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data were consistent with continued economic recovery.But with the probability of a Greek default and Grexit building by the day, the riskof a full-blown banking crisis in the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation? We estimate that wages would have to rise by 3% or more to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Even if the unemployment rate drops further in the months ahead, we think that wage growth may... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Are negative policy rates here to stay? Until recently there was a lot of scepticism that central banks would be able to set policy rates below zero. But in practice, the introduction of negative policy rates by four European central banks... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC tones down dovish comments Having kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a less dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference. For now, we remain of the view... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek crisis casts fresh cloud over outlook The deepening crisis in Greece has been met with a muted reaction in the financial markets inEmerging Europe and there are few signs that it has had any impact on economic activity in theregion... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets right to expect slow monetary tightening The prevailing view in the markets that the MPC can raise interest rates extremely gradually over the coming years seems right to us. Granted, wage growth has begun to pick up and the Fed looks set to... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
