Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Riksbank to move ahead of the pack Economic prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies are fairly bright. Although Switzerland had a disappointing start to the year in terms of GDP growth, the surveys are universally positive about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation forecasts underline case for loose policy The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming meeting while further reductions in the Board’s inflation forecasts will underline that policy tightening remains a distant... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth rising in September to its fastest pace in more than two years, although growth in narrow money continues to slow gradually. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tail risks to watch for in EMs Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from PM Abe’s fourth term? We are re-sending this publication because the previous one contained an error. Mr Abe is now entering his fourth term as Prime Minister. Fiscal policy will probably be tightened further during PM Abe... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth slowing Despite net external trade being a drag, the economy managed to grow by close to 2.0% q/q annualised in the third quarter, partly thanks to a big rebound in non-residential buildings investment... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Race to be next Fed Chair enters closing stages The markets are right to remain relatively sanguine over the upcoming decision on who will be the next Fed Chair, since the Fed’s low rate regime will probably continue with President Donald Trump... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The headline inflation rate rose to 1.6% in September, from 1.4%, but the increase was partly due to higher energy prices, which have already begun to fall back. Although some of the core inflation... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still on track for a November hike While it is far from a done deal, there was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, or the latest economic data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will press ahead and... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics drive latest moves in EM currencies In an otherwise quiet month for EM markets, the sharp falls in the Mexican peso and Turkish lira have stood out. In each case, the triggers have been different – the 7% fall in the peso against the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates further next year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% probably represents a pause in the central bank’s easing cycle, rather than a halt. We continue to think that with... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Set to unveil roadmap for gentle, flexible taper The ECB has now laid some very firm groundwork to announce after its meeting on 26th October that it will taper its asset purchases from January. Unlike most forecasters, we expect the Bank to set out... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
