UK Economics Update Further FPC action would not undermine recovery We could finally see some policy action from the Bank of England next week – but not in the form of a tightening in monetary policy. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) may flex its muscle by using... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hard to “chill out” when capex is collapsing Even though the recent comment by the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor that everyone should “chill out” was clearly said in jest, it looks a little misplaced when we have since found out that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB meet expectations? The question is not whether the ECB’s Governing Council will loosen monetary policy at its meeting on December 3rd, but rather whether it will do so decisively enough to meet the very strong... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Global easing cycle not over, despite looming Fed hikes After many delays we think the US Fed will – finally – raise rates in December. However, the global easing cycle is likely to continue next year,for several reasons. Underlying inflation in Japan and... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stagnant wage demands another headwind to QQE The fact that Japan’s main trade union federation says that it will not demand stronger pay hikes in the upcoming wage negotiations than it did last time around provides another reason to think that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s in store for US high-yield corporate bonds? US high-yield corporate bonds have performed poorly in November amid concerns over the renewed fall in commodity prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy. Looking ahead, we do not think... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of dollar appreciation expected to wane next year At first glance, there would appear to be an inconsistency between our forecast that the trade-weighted dollar will increase by a modest 2% next year, while at the same time we also expect short-term... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar strength unlikely to alter outlooks for monetary policy Being long of the dollar is reportedly one of the most crowded trades in the market. However, we stillthink that the US currency has further to climb against other majors. Indeed, we now expect the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom We expect the economic downturn in Latin America to bottom out towards the turn of this year and conditions to improve in 2016. However, the recovery will be slow-going and uneven. For a start, the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still putting faith in export-led recovery We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its key interest rate 0.50% next week and remain neutral on the direction of its next potential move. While highlighting the further slide in oil prices as a... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate debate heats up in Indonesia The war of words between Bank Indonesia (BI) and the government is heating up after the country’s vice president, Jusuf Kalla, earlier this week renewed its call for the central bank to cut interest... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Historic policy split to push euro below parity The prospect of a historically large divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy looks set to push the euro below parity versus the US dollar for the first time since late 2002. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Window for further loosening has closed The Reserve Bank of India has cut policy rates by 125bp so far this year, but there are a number of reasons to think that it will keep the repo rate on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
