Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, prolonged pause likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, and with the economy starting to show signs of improvement and underlying price pressures benign, we think the BoK will maintain... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Singapore to stay on hold With the growth outlook improving and inflation likely to remain fairly subdued, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which today left its monetary policy settings unchanged, is likely to be in... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no mood to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to stay neutral on the outlook for rates is understandable given how uneven recent economic growth has been. Until... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the MPC start to reverse QE? The fact that the MPC is unlikely to start to reverse its QE programme for a considerable period supports our view that interest rates will rise sooner and more quickly than is generally expected. 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed may not need to reduce its Treasury holdings after all After hiking the fed funds rate at both the June and September FOMC meetings, the Fed will begin to phase out the reinvestment of maturing principal on its asset holdings at the December meeting. A... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s fall in inflation was partly due to temporary effects and inflation should rise in April. As there is now an increasing risk that inflation will overshoot the Riksbank’s target, later this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Australia won’t benefit much from global recovery The latest data suggest that we are right to be more downbeat than most on the outlook for Australia this year but more upbeat than most on the prospects for New Zealand. While both economies will... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Does QQE expose the Bank of Japan to large losses? A sharp rise in interest rates could result in large losses for the Bank of Japan if it were ever to sell its huge stock of government bonds. But the Bank is keeping a lid on bond yields and will... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loose financial conditions open the door to more Fed hikes Despite the Fed raising interest rates twice in the past four months, broad financial conditions in the US have actually loosened. The current calm in financial markets, if sustained, would be another... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB tightening is still a distant prospect Last week’s communications from the ECB confirmed our judgement that it is in no hurry to begin the process of policy normalisation despite the health of the economy. Indeed, the Bank still intends to... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian consumers facing growing headwinds Consumer spending has grown at a steady if unspectacular pace across Emerging Asia over the past few years, comfortably outperforming other EM regions. Spending in the region should continue to grow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: inflation risks mean interest rates cuts are unlikely Peru’s central bank kept its policy interest rate on hold at 4.25% and, while the accompanying statement struck a dovish tone, the risk of a surge in inflation means rate cuts are unlikely. That said... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Monetary policy to remain loose for longer While the economy should continue to grow at a robust pace, price pressures will strengthen only slowly. And with the sales tax hike scheduled for end-2019 clouding the outlook, the Bank of Japan is... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rising inflation could prompt repo rate hike Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen again in March, due in large part to another acceleration in food inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Venezuela’s latest political crisis Venezuela has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past week, with the Supreme Court first annulling the National Assembly before then partly reversing its decision. However, a change... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI shifts towards tighter policy The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep its benchmark repo rate on hold today, but the hike to the reverse repo rate represents a shift towards tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, with... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
