Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to continue tightening; others will be slow to follow Despite the pick-up in global growth in the past few months, most of the world’s major central banks are likely to leave policy highly accommodative this year. The ECB may tweak the language in its... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB preparing to tweak guidance in June Given the shift in Mr Draghi’s language at today’s press conference, we think that in June the ECB will remove the reference to “lower” interest rates from its forward guidance. While this would end... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank dissenters fail to prevent QE extension Only the Riksbank Governor’s casting vote secured today’s unexpected QE extension. While we have pushed back our expectation for the first repo rate rise in Sweden, we still think that the Riksbank... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan remains too upbeat about inflation The BoJ upgraded its assessment of the economy at today’s meeting but lowered its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year. We think that the Bank remains too optimistic about inflation and... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why we are no longer expecting more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd May and, in a change to our central forecast, we now no longer expect it to cut... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still on track for a June rate hike The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, but the statement should keep open the prospect of a hike in June. Admittedly, the... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up inflation fight The Turkish MPC’s surprise move to tighten monetary policy further today via another hike in the late liquidity rate indicates that policymakers may have a greater resolve to tackle the country’s... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi may be approaching a turning point Analysts are convinced that the renminbi can only go one way – down against the dollar. But a return to appreciation is looking increasingly plausible. 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The Capital Markets Analyst Q2 2017 - As good as it gets for US assets? We think that the best days are over for assets in the US, in both absolute and relative terms. For example, we expect bond yields to rise further there than in other developed economies over the next... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Apr.) The sharp jump in the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator is consistent with our view that in tomorrow’s monetary policy announcement the Riksbank will signal an end to its asset purchases programme... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Underlying inflation in Australia is by no means strong but, when coupled with the RBA’s financial stability concerns, it doesn’t appear to be weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex rises to record highs Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early April. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Strong growth throughout, but policy to diverge Prospects appear to have improved for all of the Nordic and Swiss economies, with surveys pointing to annual GDP growth of up to 3% in Switzerland and 5% in Sweden. Inflation has been subdued on the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & Eastern Europe: a strong Q1 The latest surveys and monthly activity figures suggest that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) made a strong start to the year. And Poland appears to have seen one of its fastest... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines – current account deficit no cause for alarm A sharp fall in the Philippines’ current account surplus is fueling fears that the economy is overheating. We think such fears are overdone. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning (a bit) hawkish on New Zealand The period of ultra-low inflation in New Zealand is well and truly over. While we still believe that the financial markets are too hawkish in expecting the official cash rate to start rising this year... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
