UK Markets Chart Pack UK stuck between transatlantic policy divergence It now looks odds on that the US Federal Reserve presses ahead and raises interest rates next week, while on the other side of the English Channel, the ECB has already loosened policy further. The UK... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on the cusp of historic rate hike At next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on 16 th December, the Fed is now almost universally expected to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of between 0.25% and 0.50%. In the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five reasons not to panic about Fed “lift-off” We do not think that higher US interest rates will derail the global recovery next year. The Fed is only likely to tighten policy if the economy continues to do well. Other major central banks will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone weather the global headwinds? The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation is coming Although we expect GDP growth to be a moderate 2.5% next year, the big surprise will be how quickly inflation rebounds. With domestic price pressures mounting and this year’s deflationary shocks from... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q3) The solid growth in Iceland’s GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy is performing strongly and has put the 2008 collapse of the banking sector behind it. With domestic demand very healthy, the central... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) & IMACEC (Oct.) The further fall in Chilean inflation in November is an encouraging sign that price pressures in the economy are easing. While this reduces the likelihood of the central bank hiking interest rates... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) Today’s data suggest that capital outflows picked up sharply last month, leading the People’s Bank to resume selling FX in order to prop up the value of the renminbi. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's faith in finance ministry is misplaced The RBI is expressing a high degree of faith in the finance ministry’s ability to offset a rising public sector wage bill by boosting tax revenues or trimming other forms of current spending. We fear... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes tied to pace of inflation rebound Last week Chair Janet Yellen all but confirmed that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates from near-zero at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which ends on 16 th December. Any final doubts should have... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are UK bonds in for a choppy ride? There was much talk about the emerging “transatlantic divergence” last week. It now looks odds on that the US Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates later this month. Meanwhile, on the other... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The 211,000 gain in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the 35,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, would appear to seal an interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming FOMC... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona shoots wide The ECB’s failure to live up to its own hype at December’s Governing Council meeting looks likely to have at least some negative consequences, both on the economic outlook via the market response and... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
