Asia Economics Update Further easing in Indonesia likely to be very gradual Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% does not mean the easing cycle is over. However, with worries growing about the strength of the rupiah, we think any... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The road back to normal monetary policy In our view, the tightening of global monetary policy in the coming years need not be all that substantial. This is largely because equilibrium interest rates have fallen a long way in the past few... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic monetary policy to be unchanged until 2019 Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) appears to have reached the end of its loosening cycle. We expect the Bank to keep rates on hold until... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending has slowed in recent months and the BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further weakening in coming months. However, brisk corporate bond issuance and record corporate profits... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Fed prepared for the challenges ahead? The nomination of the relatively inexperienced Jerome Powell as Fed Chair comes at arguably a bad time as the FOMC has fewer professional economists and less experience than it has had in decades. The... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Much like the consumer price inflation data released yesterday, wholesale price inflation came in above expectations in October. Policymakers put less weight on the WPI measure, but any lingering... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will inflation ever pick up again? We think the average inflation rate in advanced economies will remain lower than it was in the pre-crisis period for the foreseeable future, for several reasons. In some economies, there is more spare... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will regional trade agreements boost growth? Almost 10 months after Donald Trump pulled the US out of negotiations to set up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), ministers from the remaining 11 countries are trying to salvage something from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada likely on hold until well into 2018 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech earlier this week was too dismissive of the current weakness of underlying inflation, although that isn’t a surprise given the Bank’s interest rate hikes... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate – by 25bp to 3.25% – caught most by surprise but was in line with our forecast, and we expect further easing over the coming months... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA admits it will miss its inflation target for two more years The Reserve Bank of Australia admitted in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy that underlying inflation will be below its 2-3% target for a year longer than it previously thought. We have been saying... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Where are Icelandic policy rates heading? Forecasters have been wrong-footed this year by the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) rate cuts. This appears to be because the CBI has started to put more emphasis on a different inflation measure, and... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The pick-up in Mexican inflation last month appears to be due in large part to temporary factors relating to September’s earthquakes. Nevertheless, the data strengthen the case for delaying interest... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Markets underestimating Riksbank rate rises As today’s minutes show few signs that policymakers are concerned about the economy overheating, we have pushed back our forecast for a rate rise to September 2018. But we still expect rates to be... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
