UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery regaining pace, but looking unbalanced The UK economy appears to be regaining a little momentum, but the nature of the recovery is looking quite unbalanced. The breakdown of Q3’s 0.5% quarterly rise in real GDP showed solid growth in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets shrug off MPC’s warnings And so another year of rock bottom interest rates is set to pass us by. It is getting on for seven years since interest rates reached 0.5% and it is over eight years since we saw an interest rate rise... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB fails to live up to its own hype The European Central Bank’s failure to meet the expectations for further policy loosening fuelled by its own dovish signals has dented both its reputation for communication and, more importantly, the... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a much higher than expected 8.1% y/y in November reinforces our view that the central bank will be forced to hike interest rates over the coming months. 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Better data not enough to prevent cut to 2.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably cut interest rates by 0.25%, from 2.75% to 2.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 10th December. What’s more, and despite the release of some positive... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its policy rate at 0.50% today was as expected given that the economy returned to positive growth in the third quarter. Although it believes economic growth will... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to keep playing piggy in the middle While monetary policy looks set to start moving in opposite directions in the US and euro-zone very soon, no change looks likely in the UK in the near future. Sterling is therefore likely to be caught... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current QE rules won’t stop the ECB An expansion of the QE programme tomorrow would probably require some changes to ECB rules. But we do not think that this will be enough to deter the Bank from implementing more stimulus. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC getting closer to acting, but will tread carefully We got close to finally seeing some action from the Bank of England today. But in the event, the latest Financial Stability Report only prepped the ground for action from the Financial Policy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, rather than just being on pause, we maintain our view that the loosening cycle is now at an end. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3 15) The Swiss GDP release revealed that growth stalled in Q3 and November’s manufacturing PMI points to worse to come. This raises the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will increase its... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose in 2016 The broad money supply is growing steadily and the growth of credit to nonfinancial companies has been recovering in recent months. With bond yields still very low and several central banks likely to... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s tightening cycle has further to run The smaller-than-expected 25bp hike in Colombia’s benchmark interest rate, to 5.50%, suggests that policymakers are starting to worry about the impact of tighter monetary policy on the economy. But... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic rebound may already be fading The evidence suggests that the economy stumbled at the end of the third quarter, casting doubt about its capacity to survive the worsening oil price collapse. With non-exports misfiring and business... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fears of Asia slowdown overdone For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
