ECB Watch Still no hints of policy tightening The ECB is likely to stick to the script this month, with a weak outlook for underlying inflation justifying its plan to buy assets until at least the end of the year. The Bank will probably drop the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics dominates the headlines but market impact limited The escalation of political risks has dominated the headlines in EMs in recent weeks, but the fallout in financial markets has been surprisingly small. Equities in Russia and South Korea initially... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia unlikely to cut rates despite poor growth outlook Despite the relatively poor growth outlook, Bank Indonesia (BI) left its key policy rate on hold at 4.75% today. With inflation set to rise over the coming months and the rupiah vulnerable to sudden... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to signal end of asset purchases As next week’s monetary policy meeting is the last before asset purchases are set to end in June, the Riksbank will probably signal whether they will be extended. While CPIF inflation, which excludes... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Cuts to inflation forecast to underline need for loose policy With economic growth strengthening recently, a slim majority of analysts now expects the Bank of Japan to start tightening policy by the end of next year. But stronger growth has failed to generate... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The further strengthening in underlying price pressures in the first quarter has increased the chances that the RBNZ will raise interest rates earlier than we had been expecting. Both we and the RBNZ... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia in no rush to hike rates despite further rise in inflation Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to a new eight-year high in March, but we see little prospect of a rate hike any time soon. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack KORUS renegotiation on the cards Confirmation that the US is seeking to renegotiate but not scrap the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is the latest sign that President Trump’s bark, at least when it comes to trade, is turning... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in March, but the bigger picture is that it remains close to its highest rate in three years, and that price pressures are still elevated. 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump faces several near-term challenges President Donald Trump’s new-found enthusiasm for realpolitik rather than the “America First” doctrine he championed in his inaugural speech is encouraging, but his administration still faces several... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity surveys point to faster growth Activity surveys suggest that economic growth in the largest Nordic and Swiss economies is set to pick up. In Switzerland, the KOF Business Barometer points to annual GDP growth rising from Q4’s 0.6%... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t raise interest rates to cool housing speculation The Bank of Canada confessed this week that speculation is partly responsible for the recent upswing in house prices, but doesn’t believe that higher interest rates are a solution to the problem. The... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five key calls for Emerging Asia The highlight of the coming week is a scheduled monetary policy meeting in Indonesia. Despite the poor growth outlook, we think interest rates will be left on hold against a backdrop of rising... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan remains too optimistic about inflation While there are good reasons to believe that inflation will continue to recover in coming months, the Bank of Japan’s most recent forecasts from January are far too optimistic. Downward revisions to... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
