India Economics Update Rise in inflation has further to run We think that consumer price inflation rose again in November, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. With core price pressures also continuing to build, the Reserve Bank may have to... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish The Norges Bank is very unlikely to change its policy rate next week, but we think that it will push back the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates to the end of 2019. After all, the... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait a while longer before hiking again While the MPC is extremely unlikely to raise interest rates again at its meeting on 14th December, the key question is whether any of the nine committee members will vote for another hike so soon... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to sit tight as ECB taper eases pressure on franc Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a threat is the unwinding of QE? Provided that they follow the blue-print set out by the US Fed, the world’s major central banks should be able to scale back their balance sheets over the coming years without huge adverse economic... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to jump in early 2018 We expect a spike in food price inflation to push headline CPI inflation up sharply over the months ahead. But with core inflation unlikely to pick up much further and PPI inflation set to fall... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan follow the Fed and the ECB? A long period of sustained economic growth has helped drive unemployment in Japan to its lowest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Nonetheless, inflation and wage growth are both barely positive... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fiscal stimulus will prompt faster tightening in 2018 At this stage, a 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting is all-but guaranteed. Of more interest will be whether the increased prospect of a near-term fiscal stimulus prompts officials to revise up... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada interest rate hike cycle over The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 1.00% today and its cautious policy statement indicate that, in contrast to the market view, it is in no hurry to raise rates again soon. We... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic interest rates to remain on hold At its last meeting in November, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept policy on hold. Nothing has happened since then to alter our view that interest rates will remain unchanged until 2019. 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will fiscal and monetary policy interact? The soon-to-be-finalised fiscal stimulus could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy slightly more aggressively next year, although the potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policies... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, debate may soon shift to tightening The RBI kept its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today, defying calls from prominent members of the government for further rate cuts. In fact, with core price pressures building, we think the debate may... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2018 We’ve revised down our forecast for China’s growth next year on the back of the weakness in recent data. There will be little movement in the official GDP growth numbers but we now expect actual... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift The surprisingly dovish tone taken by Governor Glapinski in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting belies the hawkish shift in sentiment across the Council as a whole. In spite of the... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy maintaining its momentum in Q4 The Office for National Statistics confirmed that GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3 and the economy appears to have maintained its recent momentum so far in the fourth quarter. Indeed, November’s Markit/CIPS... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
