Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further interest rate cuts unlikely Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 2.50%, but with the economy showing tentative signs of recovery, we think the easing cycle is over for now. We expect the policy... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to leave rates unchanged this year With inflationary pressures rising, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates on hold today came as no surprise. The central bank’s accompanying statement struck a fairly cautious tone... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone’s revival be sustained? While the recent pick-up in euro-zone growth has owed much to temporary factors, the economy now seems to be gaining its own momentum and we expect it to outperform consensus forecasts this year and... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data make the Fed’s job more difficult The latest decline in the core CPI inflation rate to 1.9% in April, at the same time as the unemployment rate dropped to a decade low of 4.4%, presents a dilemma for the Fed. The price stability part... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish Polish MPC suggests rate hikes unlikely in 2017 The statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland was broadly unchanged from previous months and suggests that any change in interest rates is unlikely in the coming months. But with core... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland to cut interest rates is likely to be followed by another cut later this year. Granted, strong economic growth will put pressure on domestic inflation... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to sound more cautious on economic outlook While the Bank of Canada will likely hold interest rates at 0.50% next week, the balance of risks around its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook are beginning to tilt to the downside, mainly... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Change in Riksbank target unlikely to shift policy yet The Riksbank has stated that its new inflation tolerance band will have no effect on policy. But with some Board members growing increasingly concerned about the effects of ultra-loose monetary policy... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would make policymakers change course? The weak activity and spending data published yesterday add to evidence that growth in China is starting to slow. We think the deceleration in the economy will be gradual and expect official efforts... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Credit growth is the strongest it has been in years but continues to fall short of growth in bank deposits. Meanwhile, the volume of external lending dipped slightly in Q4 but remains close to a... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure In the minutes of its latest meeting, the MPC commented that if the economy evolves in line with its forecast, rate hikes would be justified before markets currently expect. But judging by the market... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Back to business for the ECB? The election of Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president has removed a big risk to the euro-zone economic outlook. This could allow the ECB to stop worrying about political risks and to concentrate... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Moon defuse Korea’s demographic “time bomb”? One of the biggest challenges facing South Korea’s newly elected president, Moon Jae-in, is the country’s dreadful demographic outlook. Although there are steps the new government could take to boost... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank likely to bring more surprises for markets In a recent Quick Take audio recording (available here), we discussed why the Central Bank of Russia had caught the markets (but not us) off guard at its last two meetings and why interest rates are... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
