Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates early next year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets continue to react well to Fed rate hikes? The positive reaction of many riskier assets to Fed “lift-off” supports our view that they will perform well in 2016. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to keep feet firmly on the ground despite Fed “lift off” The US Fed’s decision to finally press ahead and raise interest rates yesterday begged the question ofwhether the MPC will quickly follow suit. However, in the near term, the only British mention of... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are commodity markets right to shrug off the Fed? The muted responses in commodity markets to the first hike in US interest rates since 2006 are atribute to the clear communications of the Fed and, in our view, largely justified. Looking forward... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals rate cuts next year The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) Flash manufacturing PMIs for December show continued steady growth in the eurozone and Japan, but they also underline how much the US manufacturing sector is struggling. That said, we doubt that this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone nose-dive? There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s monetary policy to stay loose throughout 2016 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today ahead of the upcoming US rate decision and amid signs of a stabilising domestic economy. With price pressures... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why commodity markets (still) shouldn’t fear the Fed We have of course addressed the potential impact of higher US interest rates on global commodity markets before. But with the Fed almost certain to hike tomorrow for the first time since 2006, now is... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals unconventional easing The accompanying press release to today’s MPC decision in Hungary, at which the deposit rate was left unchanged at 1.35%, was dovish and suggested that unconventional measures to loosen policy will be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The latest consumer prices figures confirmed that the UK’s brief flirt with deflation came to an end in November. But price pressures look set to remain subdued for a long while yet. Accordingly, the... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus MYEFO – Hiding a larger structural fiscal hole The decision by the Treasurer to use the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) to draw attention to the deterioration in the fiscal position triggered by the weak economic backdrop is one that... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Inflation slowdown to increase pressure on policymakers With economic activity recovering and underlying inflation holding up, there is little immediate pressure on the Bank to step up the pace of easing. However, we still believe that price pressures will... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
