Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank set to ease monetary policy further The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, took most analysts by surprise, but not us. We expect one further 25bp cut, to 3.75%, over the coming... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Malaysia to stay on hold for the rest of the year Despite the recent spike in inflation, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect BNM to keep interest rates steady... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect May’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee is in no hurry to raise interest rates. But it also lent some support to our view that it will begin to tighten... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep rates on hold this year Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% had been widely expected. But while the consensus among analysts is that the BSP will hike... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rate cut on the cards Following the sharp drop in the Icelandic króna after the lifting of capital controls in March, we pushed back our forecast for an Icelandic interest rate cut from May to August. But since the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp divergence in Swiss and Swedish inflation in April supports our views that the Swiss National Bank will need to keep monetary policy loose for a long time to come but that Sweden’s Riksbank... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is central bank independence under threat? Despite the criticisms levelled at them over the past year, central banks are not likely to be stripped of their independence anytime soon, or have their mandates radically changed. Politicians who... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Shift in Riksbank stance unlikely until turn of the year Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that the proponents of last month’s shock QE extension are unlikely to change their minds on the direction of monetary policy any time soon. So there is little chance... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp decline in Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation has paused over the past three months, but it should soon resume. We think that it will fall to 1.0% later in the year, and remain well below the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, pause unlikely to last The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold, but a combination of rapid credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency suggests further tightening is only a matter of... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ again follow the Fed and the ECB? There is less evidence of spare capacity in Japan’s economy than in the euro-zone which might suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to hike rates before the ECB. However, the Bank has pledged to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP “minus US” – is it worth the bother? Even without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could still provide a decent boost to the four countries from Emerging Asia included in the deal. The risk is that without the carrot of access... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Q1 slowdown to keep MPC hawks at bay Weaker economic data and a rise in the pound is likely to silence some of the tentatively hawkish members of the MPC and mean that May’s Inflation Report strikes a relatively dovish tone. Nonetheless... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to rebound, but not enough for BoJ Underlying price pressures in Japan are not quite as weak as the recent negative reading for core inflation might suggest: it was caused by a slump in mobile phone prices that won’t continue. But... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An infrastructure Budget would be good for the economy We’re not too keen on the plans of the Australian Treasurer to distinguish “good” debt from “bad” debt in the Federal Budget on Tuesday, but we do like the sound of a budget that is expected to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
