Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts in Hungary could come back onto the cards The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook The decision by the Turkish MPC to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, provides further evidence that the Council is paying scant regard to its inflation target and more... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Two major reasons for cheer Over the past month, two key developments in India have given investors reason to cheer. The first is the passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill, which could bring huge benefits... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal be excluded from the ECB’s QE programme? The sharp rise in Portugal’s bond yields last week reflected justified concerns about the government’s credit rating. While the Government intends to stick to the EU’s fiscal rules, slow economic... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields set to remain very low for a long while yet The prospect of a further prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy suggests that government bond yields are set to remain markedly low for a long time yet. Admittedly, we think Treasury yields... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to sound the “all clear” on Brexit risks In the last few days there has been a lively debate in the UK media over whether Brexit ‘Armageddon’ has been avoided. Our view is that it is far too early to say for sure and that sterling in... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Regional growth to improve as Brazil exits recession The downturn in Latin America is starting to bottom out and growth should return as we enter 2017. The region’s largest economy – Brazil – is turning the corner and our growth forecasts for the next... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Choice of new RBI governor signals policy continuity The announcement over the weekend that Dr Urjit Patel, a current deputy governor, will take over as governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September points to policy continuity and strengthens... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Weaker dollar supports commodity prices With a few exceptions, commodity prices have trended higher over the past week. A weaker dollar on the back of the July FOMC minutes showing that Fed officials were divided over the timing of the next... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) With the growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate at a solid 4.4% y/y in July and bank loan growth at an even stronger 7.7% y/y, the economy appears to be in good health. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by household debt? The latest data show that household debt is now close to its 2008 peak in dollar terms. However, the gains in income over the past eight years and the decline in interest rates mean that households... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Easing likely to resume in Indonesia soon Bank Indonesia (BI) left its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo, on hold today at 5.25%, but with growth struggling and inflationary pressures low, a rate cut is likely sooner rather than... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will term premiums anchor US Treasury yields? The term premiums of US government bonds – the parts of their yields that do not capture expectations for short-term interest rates – are unusually low. Indeed, according to the estimates of some Fed... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign of immediate post-referendum hit to spending The UK’s vote to leave the EU means that consumer spending growth is set to slow on the back of a weakening jobs market and a squeeze on real wage growth. Confidence has already fallen since the vote... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How the ECB could overcome its QE limitations If the ECB is to accelerate and extend its asset purchases next month as we anticipate, it will need to address the programme’s limitations, particularly relating to German debt. We think that the ECB... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth should pick up as headwinds fade After a muted performance over the past 12 months, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, albeit mainly because the drags from falling investment and inventories will fade... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
