Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: time to throw in the towel? A combination of tighter monetary and fiscal policy will offset the benefits of a weaker peso and keep the brakes on Mexico’s economy over the coming years. Nonetheless, we don’t think it’s time to... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting used to lower growth Global growth was sluggish in the first quarter, but it is likely to pick up a bit during the rest of the year. A policy-induced rebound in China and recovery in the prices of key commodities should... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Inflation is going to overshoot the Fed’s 2% target, let’s be clear. While we expect Fed officials to be fairly relaxed about that, however, we don’t think it means interest rates won’t rise at all... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy loosening in Korea more likely than not The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% , b ut with the economy still in a fragile state, monetary policy loosening looks to be on the cards in the coming... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Maturing FX swaps unlikely to rattle markets Recent concerns over a potential market sell-off when the Reserve Bank‘s FX swap facilities, unveiled during the 2013 “taper tantrum”, mature have been overstated. For a start, the RBI has already... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Wholesale price inflation was virtually unchanged in March but, looking ahead, we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More than meets the eye to new Bank Indonesia policy rate Bank Indonesia today unveiled some adjustments to its policy regime which it hopes will prompt commercial banks to lower their lending rates. If the moves are a success, they should lead to an... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru likely to restart tightening cycle later this year The decision by Peru’s central bank to hold interest rates at 4.25% for a second consecutive month suggests that policymakers believe inflationary risks are now waning. But we doubt inflation will... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi will be dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi will respond to German politicians’ recent criticism of the ECB’s ultra-loose policy at the meeting on 21st April by reiterating the Bank’s independence and stressing that more... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will inflation ever reach 2%? If the government presses ahead with the sales tax hike next year, the chances of hitting 2% inflation on a sustainable basis anytime soon are very slim. Even if the tax hike is postponed, our best... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Policymakers running out of ammunition The euro-zone’s gradual recovery appears to be slowing as we had warned as boosts from the euro’s depreciation and falling oil prices fade. However, the ECB has hinted at limits to its future policy... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will negative interest rates lead to higher savings? We are not convinced that negative policy rates will prompt households to save more, in aggregate, even though some may step up their savings for retirement. There are many other drivers of savings... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives warnings about EU referendum The MPC’s unanimous decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at 0.5% today was unsurprising given recent signs of a slowdown in economic activity and heightened uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further policy loosening in Singapore unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today moved to flatten the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a loosening of its policy stance. But with... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada will cut rates later this year The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the rate outlook was largely in response to the improvement in economic growth early this year, fiscal stimulus... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
