UK Economics Weekly Did the MPC jump the gun in August? The resilience of the recent data has prompted some commentators to question whether the MPC was wrong to cut Bank Rate to 0.25% and announce new gilt purchases of £60bn and corporate bond purchases... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia Russia’s Central Bank has put increasing emphasis on the importance of inflation expectations in making monetary policy decisions, but it seems that these tend to be a lagging, rather than a leading... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay on hold until year-end at least With the economy showing some signs of improvement, the Bank of Korea (BoK) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today. While benign inflation will give the BoK scope to keep rates... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB a touch less dovish, but its work is not done President Draghi suggested today that a dramatic increase in ECB policy support is not imminent. But we still expect the Bank to extend its QE programme by six months to next September and it may yet... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rebound in activity won’t prevent further policy easing The rebound in some activity data over the past month has led some to question whether the MPC jumped the gun with its bold package of measures in August. However, the loosening was no doubt one of... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Are negative interest rates working? Negative interest rates have succeeded in lowering bond yields and bank lending rates in Japan without undermining lenders’ willingness to provide credit. However, credit growth has nonetheless... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the pendulum swinging towards fiscal stimulus? With global growth still lacklustre, monetary policy seemingly ineffective and government bond yields unprecedentedly low, the case for fiscal stimulus has become more compelling. Partly as a result... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut The Bank of Canada issued a relatively dovish statement today, warning that “risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July”. 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to dropto a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s rate hold to continue Following its move to cut rates in response to rising downside risks to growth at its last meeting in July, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0%. With growth... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to drop to a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy The unexpected slump in the ISM non-manufacturing index to a six-year low of 51.4 in August, from 55.5, should all but rule out any possibility of a September rate hike, particularly as the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack No post-Brexit crisis, but world economy still struggling The latest surveys suggest that the UK economy has slowed but not slumped following the EU referendum, while growth in the world as a whole has remained sluggish. The US economy looks set to pick up a... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA thinks it’s done enough The policy statement released alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.5% today provides no hint that another rate cut is around the corner. If the inflation... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
