Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The modest decline of 2,100 in employment in suggests that the economy is still struggling to cope with lower oil prices. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%. We still believe that the worst... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Resilient sentiment suggests economic gloom overdone The economy seems to be on a worrying downward trajectory. But if activity were about to fall off a cliff, we might expect forward-looking measures of confidence and expectations to be tumbling and... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic Last week’s EC Spring forecasts presented a pretty uninspiring picture of the euro-zone economy’s prospects. Despite the unprecedented degree of monetary policy support, growth is expected to slow... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How Lowe will interest rates go? The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecast that underlying inflation will remain below the 2-3% target range until mid-2018 supports our view that interest rates will soon be cut by a further 0.25%... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to remain cautious ahead of referendum A policy change looks very unlikely this month. Not only will the MPC not want to rock the boat ahead of the EU referendum, but the economy still does not look strong enough to warrant a tightening of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC remains cautious, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC once again sounded relatively hawkish at this afternoon’s press conference, and we remain comfortable with our view that monetary policy will be tightened later this year to take some... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, financial risks and the Fed With the Fed leaving the door open to another interest rate hike at June’s FOMC meeting, focus is starting to shift once again to financial vulnerabilities in EMs. A handful of countries are likely to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk? We doubt that the MPC will model separate ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ scenarios in its Inflation Report next week. But Brexit uncertainty will still affect its forecasts via its assumptions about the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Although the annual growth rate of our own M3 measure was a still muted 3.8% in March, the strength of M2 growth, at 6.2%, and bank loan growth, at 7.8%, underscores that there is nothing in the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Tightening cycle close to an end A larger-than-expected hike in interest rates last week, coupled with the fact that inflation should soon peak, means that we suspect that Colombia’s tightening cycle is now nearing an end. We are... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC more dovish, but rate cuts still some way off The statement by the Russian central bank following its decision to leave the one-week repo rate on hold today was dovish, but less so than what the markets seem to have expected. The Council’s... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
