UK Economics Update MPC signals rate hike as soon as November The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gave a pretty clear signal today that it intends to raise interest rates within the next few months. We now expect a 25bp hike in November. 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC takes hawkish line after inflation surprise Last month’s jump in inflation prompted the Turkish MPC to adopt a more hawkish line in the statement accompanying today’s meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged. Even so, with inflation... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB language tweaks don’t signal policy shift The Swiss National Bank today acknowledged the depreciation of the franc over recent months but stressed that it was still necessary to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and maintain the... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose in August, and looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. This is another reason to think that there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Stronger growth still failing to generate inflation The Bank of Japan at its upcoming meeting will acknowledge that the economic recovery has accelerated. But policymakers will again leave policy settings unchanged and, with inflation set to continue... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets bracing for another interest rate hike The Bank of Canada’s bold call to raise interest rates again so soon after its well-telegraphed July hike caught some investors completely by surprise, resulting in a sharp increase in rate... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would be a dovish ECB taper? Given upward pressure on the single currency, we now see the ECB tapering its asset purchases over nine months instead of six next year. We still expect it to announce the full programme in advance... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery continues at the start of Q3 The latest activity data from EMs suggest that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. Consumer spending has continued to pick up across most regions, while both industrial production and... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to stand pat until next year A plethora of recent developments mean that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again until next year now, although we do expect it to announce the start of its balance sheet normalisation at... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated sharply in August, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. As such, there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will tougher sanctions on North Korea work? The United Nations has agreed a new set of sanctions on North Korea, which while falling short of what was originally demanded by the US, constitute the strongest sanctions ever imposed on the country... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has economic growth passed its peak in New Zealand? While GDP growth should hold up fairly well over the next year, we expect there will be a sharper slowdown than the RBNZ and most analysts are anticipating in 2019 as the impacts of a cooling housing... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Storm clouds gathering in Canada too The housing investment boom may have breathed its last gasp last quarter. With existing home sales floundering and average sale prices dropping, tighter mortgage financing rules and ill-timed interest... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook to keep ECB cautious The ECB’s new forecasts show that it expects inflation of just 1.2% next year and 1.5% in 2018. As the economy is performing well and core inflation has picked up recently, the Bank should still feel... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stopgap debt ceiling deal makes the Fed’s job harder A number of developments this week – including Vice Chair Stanley Fischer’s resignation from the Fed, the stopgap deal to keep the government funded for only three months and the arrival of Hurricane... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
