Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: growing risk that policy will be kept too loose A rise in interbank rates and weaker net wage growth appear to lie behind the Romanian MPC’s surprise decision to keep its policy interest rate on hold today. We still think that the tightening cycle... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts rates, loosening will be gradual The central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) today cut its lending rate by 25bp. While further monetary policy loosening looks likely against a backdrop of weak growth and easing inflation, aggressive rate... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talking the exit talk The Bank of Japan has become more vocal about its desire to exit the current ultra-loose policy settings. But with concerns about the impact of low policy rates on financial intermediation overblown... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Global events may keep the RBA on hold for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more worried about trade tariffs and rising global bank funding costs. Coming on top of the weakness of the housing market and wage growth, it is becoming even... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal policy will determine future path of Brazil rates Brazil’s central bank appears to have been spooked by the weakness of the recent inflation data, but we think that the conduct of fiscal policy will ultimately have a much greater bearing on how... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will trade fears dent growth? The recently announced US tariffs should have a limited direct effect on the UK economy. Admittedly, falls in equity prices – on the back of concerns over a full-blown trade war – could clearly have... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy tightening on the horizon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) looks set to keep its policy rates on hold at the meeting that ends on Thursday 5th April. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Trade spat will not deflect Fed (or BoE) from hiking We expect the Fed to raise interest rates three more times this year, and twice in 2019, but we think it will then begin to loosen policy in 2020. Other than the Bank of England, most major central... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate cut will be a one-off Today’s 25bp interest rate cut does not signal the start of a new easing cycle. We think that policymakers were attempting to seize the opportunity for a quick cut before inflation picks up later this... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates to stay on hold in Thailand With the economy in good shape and inflationary pressures subdued, the Bank of Thailand unsurprisingly decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.5%. The accompany statement reiterated that... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bounce back in activity unlikely Both the Australian and New Zealand economies failed to regain any momentum at the end of 2017 with GDP rising by a slower than expected 0.6% q/q in New Zealand and just 0.4% q/q in Australia... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish stance of Hungary’s MPC missing the bigger picture The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike a dovish tone which, given the recent run of weak inflation data, isn’t a surprise. But the softness of inflation has been... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the BoJ abandon its 2% inflation target? Five years after Governor Kuroda embarked on aggressive policy easing, core inflation in Japan is still barely positive and the Bank of Japan seems to have run out of ideas on how to push it higher... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and lending data add to the evidence from the activity surveys that economic growth has topped out. But with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch What could prompt a rate rise in 2018? The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd April and it’s likely to reiterate that rate hikes remain some way off by... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
