UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Policy response should cushion hit to growth The MPC’s decision to announce a package of stimulus measures yesterday was no doubt influenced by the thoroughly downbeat tone of this week’s survey data. While it’s clear that growth is set to slow... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB set to follow BoE despite policy limitations The Bank of England’s policy action last week added to the pressure on the ECB to do more. At the moment, the ECB’s self-imposed restrictions would prevent a large expansion of its asset purchase... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar punishing the RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t done itself any favours by providing no real hints that interest rates will fall below 1.5%, as the resulting strengthening in the dollar will make it even harder... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet be forced to cut rates below 1.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia used its new Statement on Monetary Policy to suggest that it hasn’t got much appetite for cutting interest rates below 1.5%, although its own inflation forecasts suggest... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Further gains would not store up problems Further gains in emerging markets (EMs) seem likely as the Fed shies away from hiking rates again and other major central banks loosen monetary policy. But while that may cause some concerns that the... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy shrugs off Brexit vote The initial evidence suggests that the UK’s vote to leave the EU has caused its economy to slow sharply. That has already prompted the Bank of England to ease policy, and we suspect it will cut rates... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the MPC inject fresh life into the housing market? Today’s measures from the MPC met our expectations. And while mortgage interest rates are now likely to fall a little further, uncertainty amongst buyers means that this is unlikely to give lending... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 7.2% y/y in July suggests that – barring an upside surprise in this month’s CPI figure – the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood The Romanian MPC’s press conference was a little more dovish than we had anticipated, but robust domestic demand and rising inflation mean gradual interest rate hikes still seem more likely than not... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC delivers & signals more to come The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made good on its pledge at July’s meeting to implement a package of policy measures to cushion the economy from the adverse effects of the... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC probably won’t cut rates or the RRR anytime soon Concerns about growing credit risks mean that the People’s Bank has good reason to hold off from another round of broad easing measures until clear signs of a renewed downturn emerge. 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Monsoon impact on inflation limited July’s consumer price inflation data is likely to show that the headline rate edged down but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. Suggestions from many commentators... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ to signal rates may fall below 2.0% When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Thursday 11 th August, we expect it to cut interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% and to confirm that it is willing to reduce rates further. A stubbornly high... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but cut likely soon The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% today came as no surprise. However, with price pressures benign and growth likely to slow later this year, we think a... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will US equities shrug off a rebound in the dollar? The US stock market shrugged off some renewed appreciation of the dollarafter the UK’s vote for Brexit – indeed, the S&P 500 rose to a record high inJuly. However, we expect further strength in the US... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What could the MPC’s “package of measures” consist of The package of policy options the MPC will unveil on 4th August could include rate cuts, the purchase of gilts and corporate bonds, an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), forward... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
