Japan Economics Update Governor Kuroda is mulling another policy surprise Amid rising concerns that the BoJ’s large-scale purchases of Japanese Government Bonds cannot be sustained for much longer, policymakers are mulling the introduction of an explicit target for long... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16) Headline CPI inflation remained unusually low in July and the latest drop in energy prices will keep it below 2% for longer than we first thought. Core consumer prices rose by 0.1% m/m, which was... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Indian wholesale price inflation recorded another sharp rise in July, and it looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Japan’s economy stagnated in the second quarter, so spare capacity didn’t shrink any further. Adding in the deflationary impact of the stronger yen, underlying inflation should moderate further in... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The conventional wisdom is that the Bank of Japan’s large-scale bond purchases will soon dry up the pool of available assets. By contrast, we believe that QQE can continue for several more years. One... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought? Right now it is hard to find anything positive to say about Canada’s economy. Around the start of this year things seemed to be going in the right direction; with non-energy exports on a tear and the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit This week’s data provided more evidence that business investment and the property market will be hit hard by the leave vote. But with signs of resilience in consumer spending, and the Bank of England... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China adds to the outperformance of EM equities Whereas the collapse in Chinese equity prices sent global markets into meltdown last summer, they have begun to drive the outperformance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in recent weeks. A shift in... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit is still expanding at a faster pace than during most of the past couple ofyears. But the impact of earlier monetary easing is now waning and after peaking in May, credit growth is... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru MPCs hint that tightening done, but hikes still likely Having left interest rates unchanged last night, the Chilean and Peruvian central banks both removed the reference to a tightening bias in their accompanying statements. However, with inflation likely... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will further rate cuts make a difference in Indonesia? Given the current backdrop of weak growth, low inflation and a stable currency, Bank Indonesia is likely to cut its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo rate, at its upcoming meeting. But more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Lower rates to prop up Buy-to-Let demand Lower interest rates will do little to help frustrated first-time buyers get onto the housing ladder. But they will ensure that the income returns offered by BTL investments continue to be relatively... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would unconventional policy look like? We don’t currently believe that the RBA or RBNZ will have to resort to unconventional monetary policy to boost inflation, but one lesson of the past decade is that we should be prepared for the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Very low gilt yields are here to stay While some of the forces recently putting strong downward pressure on gilt yields may ease a bit in the coming months, the prospect of a further prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to stay low in the Philippines With the economy in good shape and inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank inthe Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking ahead... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (July) Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
