Latin America Economics Update Chile postpones interest rate hikes on weak economy The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 3.50% reflects policymakers concerns about the weakness of the economy and reinforces our view that further rate hikes are... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has monetary policy lost its power? We do not share the view that monetary policy has become impotent. However, scope to step up monetary stimulus much beyond current levels is small. The Bank of Japan’s efforts to boost growth and lift... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis Kenya’s banking sector is stronger and more resilient than recent headlines might imply. The failure of a few small banks poses little risk to the sector as a whole. Indeed, as we explain in this... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears ECB officials appear to be trying to strike a balance between holding the door open to further policy action and yet stressing the limitations of monetary policy in order to pressure governments into... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing The government has tried to talk down the yen down over last week as the currency has climbed to fresh highs against the dollar. While we still consider intervention in the currency markets unlikely... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update We need to talk about Q1 GDP growth Thanks to a markedly weaker gain in consumption than we were previously expecting, it now appears that first-quarter GDP growth was no more than 1% annualised. Following on from the 1.4% gain in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican inflation last month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.9% y/y in February, confirms that overall price pressures in the economy remain in check. But the recent steady rise in core inflation... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages The recent weakness of wage growth over the past few months is partly explained by a deterioration in the quality of jobs being created, which is also reflected in a surge in low-skilled labour force... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold for a while yet Weaker-than-anticipated inflation, lingering uncertainty in global financial markets and concerns about the impact that the EU referendum is having on the real economy means that this month’s interest... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Mar.) Receding fears over a sharp renminbi devaluation, along with favourable exchange rate movements, has helped end the recent string of declines in the value of China’s FX reserves. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold The Polish MPC made it clear once again at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference that it’s not likely to loosen monetary policy in the near future. Although inflation will remain subdued, so... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply Business surveys edged up in March but still point to global economic growth of only around 2%. In the US, jobs growth remained strong and, with core inflation pressures building, we think the Fed... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to shift on neutral interest rate outlook We expect the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite the strong start to the year, policymakers indicated recently... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will commercial banks now pass on policy rate cuts? Having now cut its repo rate by 150bp since January 2015, the RBI yesterday re-emphasised the need for commercial banks to boost lending by passing on rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
