India Economics Update New RBI governor faces hard task in meeting targets CPI inflation data for August are likely to show that the headline rate eased a touch, but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. With the new governor, Dr Urjit Patel... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Does it make sense to raise the inflation target? The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting this Wednesday. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in its... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.) The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still likely. 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What are equity prices telling us about GDP? Euro-zone equity prices have risen so far in Q3, painting a more optimistic picture of the economy’s performance than the consumer and business surveys. However, there are two reasons why we think... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How big a threat is Zika to Singapore? The outbreak of the Zika virus in Singapore has dominated local headlines, but while it is an important public health issue the economic impact will be limited. 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: lots of talk but not much action Without a crisis to concentrate minds, G20 leaders meeting in Hangzhou are unlikely to make any major policy breakthroughs. The truth is that there is little appetite for coordinated policy action... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China caught in a “liquidity trap”? A number of voices have begun loosely using the term “liquidity trap” to argue that stronger credit growth in China has failed to provide a greater boost to output because firms are hoarding cash... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing auction rates provide only part of the picture Auction clearance rates are a timely and useful barometer of housing activity, but since they capture less than a third of all sales they don’t provide a full picture. While Australia’s housing market... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How to think about monetary policy after Rajan The appointment of Dr Urjit Patel as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gives a strong indication of policy continuity at the central bank, and strengthens our view that the easing... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may extend QE programme again Recent news on the economy has reduced the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide further policy stimulus at its forthcoming policy meeting on 8th September. But the weakness of price... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Could policymakers cope with another downturn? Policymakers gathering in Jackson Hole last week highlighted that a fall in equilibrium real interest rates means that central banks may have little room to cut rates in the event of another recession... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will be on hold for some time The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th September. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China engaging in QE by the back door? A number of commentators have recently drawn attention to a rapid rise in lending by the People’s Bank to domestic banks and suggested that this represents a form of stealth credit expansion or... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets calm following Yellen’s comments Asian financial markets generally shrugged off last Friday’s comments from US Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in which she suggested the likelihood of an early rate hike in the US has increased. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies Official data released over the past month mostly suggested that African economies improved a touch, but a series of political shocks has hit investor confidence. The most high-profile of these as... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
