Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The jump in Turkish inflation, to 11.2% y/y last month, from 10.7% y/y in August, means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of this year are looking less likely. We still think... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA becoming more confident in the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia may have left interest rates at 1.5% for the 14th month today, but its growing confidence in the outlook for activity and inflation may mean it will be prepared to signal... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair The debate surrounding the four candidates who were interviewed to become the next Fed Chair has focused almost exclusively on how they might affect the monetary policy outlook, but we suspect it will... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus to provide short-term boost to growth After another soft start to the year, US economic growth is now benefitting from an upturn in global activity and a loosening of financial conditions. The weaker dollar should boost export growth... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our forecasts Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global QE to remain positive for a while yet Although the Fed is starting to shrink its balance sheet and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases next year, the monetary base in the world as a whole should continue expanding at least... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can corporates stomach higher interest rates? Private non-financial companies are unlikely to have any difficulty coping with increases in interest costs ahead. First, the scale of the increase in Bank Rate is set to be fairly trivial by past... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen slightly more hawkish on inflation In her speech earlier this week, Chair Janet Yellen stressed that, despite the weakness of core inflation this year, the Fed still intends to push ahead with further interest rate hikes, with most... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to remain subdued, interest rates to stay low Whereas the consensus is expecting monetary policy in Emerging Asia to be tightened next year, we think central banks will be in little hurry to raise interest rates. One of the main reasons is the... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle likely to start in late-2017 The statement accompanying last night’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold suggests that, with inflation now falling, policymakers are trying to downplay expectations... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs growth to be concentrated in highly paid sectors While leading labour market indicators in Australia continue to point a decent pace of employment growth ahead, it is not just the rate of jobs growth that matters but also the composition. And at... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mortgage rates are heading back over 3% Mortgage rates are set to move back above 3% by the end of 2019. On its own, a rise in mortgage interest rates on that scale is unlikely to trigger another downturn in house prices. But it will act as... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ remains one of the most dovish central banks There remains plenty of uncertainty around the formation of the next government and who will be the next permanent Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, but the one consistency is the dovish... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still hawkish on rate outlook In his speech today, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz showed that he remains confident in the economy, suggesting that another interest rate hike is coming this year. That said, we still expect... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
