BoE Watch MPC to wait for confirmation slowdown is temporary A string of weak economic data, as well as comments by Governor Carney, have all but ruled out another interest rate hike on 10th May. Indeed, the MPC is likely to err on the side of caution until it... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update No rush for higher interest rates in Norway In today’s monetary policy announcement, the Norges Bank reiterated that it expects to raise interest rates this year. But we still suspect that it will ultimately wait until Q1 2019 before beginning... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates on hold throughout 2018 and 2019 The only thing we expect to change at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand‘s monetary policy meeting on Thursday 10 th May is the Governor, as interest rates will almost certainly stay on hold at 1.75% at... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on course for next rate hike in June The Fed was never likely to signal a major shift in policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at 1.5% to 1.75% and the accompanying statement... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emergency rate hike fails to shore up Argentine peso The Argentine central bank’s interest rate hike at an unscheduled meeting on Friday has provided little relief for the peso, which is down by another 2.5% against the dollar today. Against a backdrop... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the end of ECB QE affect bond yields? We think that after the ECB has ended its asset purchases, bond yields will generally rise only slowly. The biggest increases are likely to come in the periphery, with Italy most at risk of a sharp... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA continues to signal only “gradual” improvement The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 1.5% for the 19th meeting in a row today and continued to signal that a near-term rate hike is unlikely. Further ahead, with GDP growth likely to... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Weaker inflation points to rate cut Today’s inflation figures support our view that policymakers will cut their key rate in July. Meanwhile, the rebate surrounding Kenya’s lending rate cap suggests that the controversial law will be... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Three more Fed hikes this year, ECB and BoJ on hold Despite economic activity slowing in Q1, we expect the Fed to press on with three more rate hikes this year, not least because inflation has been higher than anticipated in recent months. But in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s easing cycle probably at an end The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate on Friday night by 25bp (to 4.25%) probably marks the last move in the easing cycle. We expect the policy rate to be left... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Election could make Malaysia’s problems worse Despite facing a resurgent opposition, Prime Minister Najib Razak is favourite to win a third term in a general election due on 9 th May. A victory for Najib would probably lead to a short-term fiscal... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities Amid escalating international trade tensions, the Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated across the board in April. Weaker exchange rates helped to give equities a boost, while the main bourses in... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will rising interest rates choke off the expansion? The further rise in 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since 2011 dominated the markets this week and there are signs that the Fed’s policy tightening is starting to feed through to the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals rate cuts still on the cards, despite ruble sell-off The sell-off in the ruble caused the Russian central bank (CBR) to pause its easing cycle today, but the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that rates are likely to be lowered... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation target remains out of reach The Bank of Japan today refrained from providing a concrete timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target for the first time since Governor Kuroda took over. This highlights that policymakers have... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
