US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to second-quarter rebound The recent activity data indicate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.8% annualised. However, we expect this to prove only a temporary setback rather than the start of a more serious... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What would the impact be if Governor Rajan stepped down? Indian media has been awash with reports that RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan might not have his contract renewed when his term expires in September. In the unlikely case that this occurs, financial... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to announce more easing this week Headwinds to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to lift inflation have intensified in recent weeks. We expect the Bank to ease more at the upcoming meeting, most probably by increasing asset purchases and... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts? 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary policy divergence to resume With the three major advanced economy central banks holding policy meetings this week and next, we are sticking to our view that the next year or two will see a lot more divergence between monetary... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would Brexit raise mortgage rates? It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi struck a dovish tone following the ECB’s April policy meeting and stressed that the Governing Council was prepared to offer more policy support if needed. But while we expect the... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No cuts in Indonesia likely until new policy rate comes into force With Bank Indonesia (BI) having announced on Friday that it is planning to replace its main policy rate because the current rate has little influence over commercial banks’ lending rates, a fourth... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity The Russian government’s use of its oil funds to finance the budget deficit will cause the monetary base to expand and is likely to push the banking sector from having a deficit of liquidity to a... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may have to fall to 1.75% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00% at the meeting in early June rather than at the meeting on Thursday 28th April, although we wouldn’t completely rule... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New Turkish central bank governor likely to cut rates further The Turkish MPC’s 50bp cut in the overnight lending rate today, to 10.0%, was pinned on the recent improvement in inflation (although political pressure no doubt played a role) and with the headline... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to leave door open to June rate hike Despite the marked improvement in financial conditions and fading fears over China’s economic outlook, the Fed is very unlikely to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
