Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa was weaker than expected in August, which supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% at its meeting tomorrow. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC underestimating inflation risks The decision by the Hungarian MPC to ease monetary conditions further today looks like a policy misstep. Mounting capacity constraints and rapid wage growth mean that we think inflation will turn out... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market set to cool further Some have pointed to a rise in home sales and housing starts growth in August as evidence that China’s property sector is holding up well despite the government’s curbs. But while the property sector... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects The Fed’s reversal of QE is another sign that the world is inching away from ultra-loose monetary policy. But it is planning to proceed slowly and avoid surprises, and no other central bank is likely... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital outflows fell to a three-year low last month as Chinese firms and individuals reduced their foreign currency deposits at the fastest pace in half a year. Looking... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan MPC holds rates again, but will ease in 2018 The Kenyan MPC kept rates unchanged today, but we expect that they will loosen policy next year as inflation falls towards the middle of the target range. 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the overheating risk in Hungary? There are no clear signs yet that Hungary’s economy is overheating but, by the same token, growing signs that the economy is hitting capacity constraints sit uncomfortably with the MPC’s continued... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB taper affect corporate bond yields? We think that corporate bond yields will rise only gradually as the ECB tapers its asset purchases next year. After all, the economy looks set to continue performing well. And the Bank is likely to... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How far will the global tightening cycle go? Although we expect the Fed to raise its key policy rate more rapidly than financial markets anticipate next year, our forecast is for it to peak at only 2.25-2.50%, in 2019. In the euro-zone and Japan... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank stays cautious, but more rate cuts loom Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, struck a predictably cautious tone at today’s postmeeting press conference. But the large amount of spare capacity in the economy is likely to keep... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry about Fed and ECB policy normalisation The next stage of monetary policy normalisation in the developed world – balance sheet reduction by the US Fed, and the shift towards QE tapering in the euro-zone – will not have a major impact on... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts interest rates, but political turmoil set to rattle markets Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp last night, to 3.50%, and confirmed our view that rates are unlikely to fall further. What’s more, the surprise decision by Congress to dismiss... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigerian inflation remained high in August, but we expect that it will ease over the coming months, prompting policymakers to cut interest rates. 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen caught between Kim Jong-un and US Fed With long-term interest rates at home anchored by the Bank of Japan, the key determinants of the value of the yen are both outside Japanese policymakers’ control: geopolitics and the actions of the US... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the surge in full-time jobs mean for wages? While the acceleration in full-time jobs growth in Australia since the start of the year is clearly a positive development for income and consumption growth, the impact on wage growth and inflation is... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to signal no rate hike until 2019 The Norges Bank is likely to leave the key policy rate at 0.50% next week, and we think that it will also leave its interest rate forecast unchanged, showing no change in rates until 2019. Although... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
