The Czech MPC’s decision to keep rates on hold today was a very close call and we think that an interest rate hike at the next MPC meeting on 2nd November is highly likely. Following that, our central view is that there will be a further 50bp of hikes in the policy rate next year, taking it to 1.00% by end-2018. But the increasingly hawkish stance of the MPC means that the risks to our forecast lie to the upside.
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