Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market forces still aren’t boosting inflation Australia’s third-quarter inflation data highlighted that inflation is highest for the items where prices are influenced by government decisions and inflation is lowest for the items where prices are... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update First rate rise a distant prospect as ECB extends QE While the ECB’s announcement that its asset purchase programme will now run until September 2018 and at a slower pace from January was largely in line with consensus forecast, its decision to keep the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to press ahead with historic rate hike While it looks set to be quite a close call, on balance we think that a majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote in favour of hiking interest rates at next Thursday’s meeting, for the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up hawkish rhetoric The hawkish tone of today’s Turkish MPC statement showed an overdue concern with high inflation (and expectations) and suggests that cuts in interest rates are off the agenda. That said, with... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) The weakness of October’s CBI Distributive Trades survey was undeniably disappointing. But there are a number of reasons to take the sharp fall in the headline figure with a pinch of salt. 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Consumers remain upbeat The latest data on retail sales during China’s National Day “Golden Week” period suggest that consumer demand remains strong. Despite a further increase in overseas tourism during the holiday... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlooks for Riksbank & Norges Bank policy While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept policy unchanged today, the outlooks for monetary policy in the two countries are very different. We think that policy in Sweden will be tightened... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s budget won’t be a giveaway bonanza While Malaysia has made good progress in bringing down its budget deficit, there remains limited room for a pre-election giveaway in the 2018 budget, which is due to be announced on 27th October... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3) GDP growth in South Korea rose to a seven-year high in q/q terms last quarter as the economy brushed off the rising tensions on the Korean peninsula. Provided conflict is avoided, South Korea should... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risk of Taylor as Fed Chair shouldn't be ignored If President Donald Trump is serious about being a “low-interest rate guy”, markets are probably right to brush off John Taylor’s chances of being nominated for Fed Chair. That said, we don’t agree... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada on hold for rest of this year The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.00% and its less hawkish policy statement indicate it will take a cautious approach, supporting our view that there will be no further rate... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch FOMC meeting could clash with Chair announcement The Fed’s policy meeting next week could provide some insight into whether the majority of officials still support a December interest rate hike. But it will otherwise be overshadowed by the imminent... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina raises rates, leaves door open to further hikes The decision by Argentina’s central bank to hike its policy interest rate, when most analysts had been expecting the next move to be a cut, is an encouraging sign that policymakers are serious about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Riksbank to move ahead of the pack Economic prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies are fairly bright. Although Switzerland had a disappointing start to the year in terms of GDP growth, the surveys are universally positive about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation forecasts underline case for loose policy The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming meeting while further reductions in the Board’s inflation forecasts will underline that policy tightening remains a distant... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth rising in September to its fastest pace in more than two years, although growth in narrow money continues to slow gradually. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
