Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus US-style collapse unlikely, but house prices will still fall A US-style collapse in house prices in Australia is unlikely when lending conditions during the good times have not been as loose as in America and Australian banks are better placed to cope with the... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today held its deposit and lending rates at 6.5% and 8.0%,respectively, for the third straight month. However, we think it is only a matter of time before it... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia continues to lead the way GDP growth in Emerging Asia slowed slightly in the first quarter of the year. However, it is stilldoing much better than other emerging regions, with South East Asia standing out as a rarebright spot... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian government bonds to outperform US Treasuries Our forecasts that interest rates in Australia will remain low for longer than the markets expect while rates in the US will rise further than widely believed are consistent with government bonds in... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle Today’s decision to hold rates at 7.00% is only a pause in the SARB’s tightening cycle; we still expect at least two rate hikes later this year. The MPC statement supported our very downbeat view of... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What if the Fed does hike again in June? Our central forecast is that US interest rates will be raised twice this year, probably in September and December, but we suspect that the chances of a hike on 15th June are rather higher than the 30%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia opens door to further easing Malaysia and Indonesia both left their main policy rates on hold at scheduled meetings today. But while Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) gave little sign that it was about to shift monetary policy... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch An interest rate cut still on the cards later this year We expect the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite stronger economic growth at the start of the year and the... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak economy will prompt SARB pause Lower-than-expected inflation and retail sales will probably lead the SARB to leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. Output data suggest that South Africa narrowly avoided a fall in GDP in Q1. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response UK Commercial Property Data Response The pace of job creation improved in March, but was nevertheless low by recent standards. That said, in big picture terms, with vacancies still high and job creation driven by full-time positions... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave its key policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% reinforces our view that lingering signs of economic weakness, notably the rising unemployment rate, will... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has the threat of deflation disappeared? Fears of deflation have eased since the beginning of the year as oil prices have rebounded and global growth has stabilised. However, the appreciation of the euro and yen and continued weakness of... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Czech GDP in Q1, to 3.1% y/y from 4.0% y/y, confirms that last year’s bumper growth rates were temporary. But the economy is still strong and today’s figures, coming alongside... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Meirelles unveils first steps in economic programme Brazil’s new Finance Minister has unveiled a string of eye-catching market-friendly measures this morning, as part of the first plank of his new economic programme. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
