BoE Watch Economy’s resilience will probably stay the MPC’s hand The resilience of the economy in Q3, combined with a stronger inflation outlook, will probably be enough to persuade a majority of MPC members to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. What’s... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone money and credit data continued the positive trend of recentmonths, consistent with a further steady expansion of the economy. Nevertheless,the data suggest that inflation will... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to loosen further but tide will turn before long It seems very likely that the Riksbank will extend its bond purchase programme after it stepped up its dovish rhetoric and suggested that it might even cut the repo rate further. But given our... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank leaves policy unchanged, but rate cuts to come The Norges Bank left its key policy rate on hold today and reiterated that no change was likely in the near future. But we think that more monetary loosening will be needed in 2017. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate cutting cycle may not be finished yet While the third quarter inflation data suggest that there is an outside chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates from 1.50% to 1.25% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World still awash with liquidity even as Fed prepares to hike Broad money and credit have been growing at a steady pace, against the backdrop of exceptionally loose global monetary conditions. In advanced economies, growth in lending to the private sector has... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt edges closer to IMF deal as shortages bite The Egyptian government has inched closer to an IMF financing package over the past month after securing a US$2bn deposit from Saudi Arabia. This makes up a third of the bilateral financing that the... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3) Ignore the larger-than-expected rise in headline CPI inflation in the third quarter, what really matters is that underlying inflation was weaker than the RBA expected. It probably wasn’t weak enough... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable? The rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds has continued unabated in recent days, but we think that this year’s strong gains may soon go into reverse. That alone would probably be enough to cause... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing Although the Bank of Canada gave no indication in last week’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, Governor Stephen Poloz freely admitted in his press conference that an... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) The recent softness in core CPI inflation could become a major concern for the Bank of Canada. The Bank was forced to cut its projection for inflation earlier this week in its new Monetary Policy... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) Data to mid-October show that inflation in Brazil is continuing to ease, which should provide room for another cut in interest rates at November’s COPOM meeting. 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
