US Economics Update Powell an underwhelming choice to be Fed Chair Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. Jerome Powell belongs in the third category. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Powell to be the next Fed... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting – at which it resumed its tightening cycle via a 25bp hike to the policy rate – was more dovish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we think that... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC presses ahead with dovish hike The Monetary Policy Committee’s dovish comments and forecasts accompanying the first rise in interest rates for a decade left the markets anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Jobs mandate to move the goalposts not change the game The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9th November and by adopting a more cautious tone in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement it... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) The Fed issued a very similar statement at the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting today, which included an upgrade to its assessment of economic growth. On balance, this is a marginally more... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB “patience” to see euro fall further The ECB seems set to raise interest rates even later than we had previously assumed and we are now pencilling in the first hike for September 2019. Accordingly, we have made small downward revisions... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Questioning the case for higher interest rates We think the financial markets are right to pare back their expectations of how far interest rates will rise next year. Admittedly, we expect that after leaving rates at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ unlikely to tighten anytime soon The Bank of Japan still expects growth to exceed its sustainable rate both this year and next. However, sluggish price pressures forced the Board to slash its inflation forecasts yet again at today’s... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home ownership rate could tumble The unprecedented upswing in the national home ownership rate, fuelled in large part by a credit boom, appears to have peaked and is now going into reverse, even though the aging population should be... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook will ensure ECB treads carefully The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases from January largely reflected growing optimism that euro-zone inflation will rise towards the target of below, but close to, 2%. Indeed, the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to raise rates faster in 2018, no matter who’s Chair Regardless of who is nominated to be the next Fed Chair, we expect a rebound in core inflation will prompt the Fed to raise interest rates four times in 2018. The components that have dragged core CPI... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Policy normalisation underway The Bank of England is set to hike its policy rate for the first time in a decade at its meeting next week, and the US Fed is on course to raise rates again in December, while continuing to unwind QE... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hints at larger easing cycle The Russian central bank statement, which accompanied today’s decision to cut the policy rate by 25bp, suggests that policymakers have become increasingly confident that inflation will remain low and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fading reform hopes roil Brazilian markets Financial markets in Brazil have come under pressure over the past week as a split in President Temer’s ruling coalition has cast doubt over important parts of his reform agenda. The trigger for the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) While the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator edged down in October, the sharp rise in the consumer confidence index means that the survey now paints a more balanced picture of the economy. And with... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
