India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated in May, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core inflation will also have remained elevated, and this is likely to be the case for... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What to make of BNM head’s resignation The resignation of Malaysia’s central bank governor amid accusations of corruption at the Bank is an encouraging sign that the new government’s anti-corruption drive is gathering pace. The new... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Recent market turmoil will not derail the Fed Despite political tensions in Europe and the uncertainty over trade policy, we expect the Fed to press ahead and raise interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting. With second quarter GDP growth... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Inflationary pressures in Iceland set to grow The Central Bank of Iceland is likely to leave policy unchanged next week. But with imported inflation rising and domestic price pressures set to grow, we see the Bank raising interest rates later... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pulls the trigger The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to hike its repo rate today surprised the consensus, but not us. We think that elevated core inflation will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia stands out as one of the few advanced economies that strengthened at the start of the year. But with households struggling even before the Royal Commission has prompted tighter credit... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) The slowdown in wage growth in April was driven by volatile bonus payments, whereas base pay kept growing at the strongest pace in two decades. But wages would still have to grow much faster to meet... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is Italy a worry for Switzerland and the Nordics? Political turmoil in Italy has rocked Swiss and Nordic financial markets over the past few weeks, but the economic fallout is likely to remain limited. That said, if the situation in Italy worsens... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not that worried by Royal Commission While leaving interest rates at the record low of 1.5% again today, the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it is not too worried about the economic implications of the Royal Commission... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Despite the sharp rebound in core inflation this year, there seems to be a growing belief in the markets that the Fed is now prepared to allow inflation to rise above the 2% target without stepping up... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s hawkishness already looks premature The Bank of Canada issued a relatively hawkish policy statement on Wednesday this week, which increased speculation that another interest rate hike was coming, possibly as soon as July. But within... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Italian troubles shouldn’t worry the MPC While the fall in gilt yields over the past fortnight partly reflects an increase in safe haven demand, expectations for future interest rates have also slipped back. It seems unlikely, though, that... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ getting more concerned about financial stability The Bank of Japan seems to be getting more concerned about the impact of low policy rates on financial stability. However, the financial system is neither unwilling to provide credit nor is credit... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much support will non-mining investment provide? While the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia is fairly encouraging, we aren’t expecting an appreciable pick-up in total private investment growth. That’s largely because the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
