Asia Economics Weekly Usual suspects repeating the same old mistakes By keeping monetary policy too loose for too long, Pakistan, Vietnam and Sri Lanka now face either a surge in inflation or a rise in bad debts. What’s more, central banks remain complacent about the... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole Although GDP growth in Australia in the first quarter probably at least matched the 0.6% q/q rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the continued disappointment is the failure of non-mining... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to be dovish but stress that ECB can’t do it all The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish tone at its forthcoming policy meeting on 2nd June, forecasting below target inflation and holding open the door to further policy... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes The US Fed looks set to increase interest rates soon, possibly as early as its June meeting, and we think it will end up hiking more than is generally expected over the next couple of years. However... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada less optimistic on economy Despite a serious downgrade to its views on second quarter economic activity, the Bank of Canada opted to hold interest rates at 0.50% today and to remain neutral on the rate outlook, clinging to its... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil: promising policies, problematic politics Events in Brazil have dominated the past month. The new government under interim president, Michel Temer, has announced a string of market-friendly policies aimed at stabilising the economy, but it... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will the UK referendum affect global monetary policy? A vote by the UK to leave the European Union would come as a major surprise and could trigger significant market turmoil. This would probably lead to the Bank of England keeping monetary policy looser... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June rate hike far from a done deal The minutes of the April FOMC meeting and subsequent comments by various Fed officials have prompted speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Treasury yields have... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Claims that the launch of negative interest rates has caused a flight to cash are exaggerated. However, there are clear signs that negative rates have lowered borrowing costs for Japan’s private... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack PM Modi's first two years end on a high note Two years on from his inauguration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arguably just enjoyed his most successful month in office. For a start, PM Modi's BJP secured two important legislative victories... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations could protect EM equities from the Fed While investors are still probably underestimating the future pace of monetary tightening in the US, we suspect that relatively low valuations will help to ensure that emerging market (EM) equities... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility The Central Bank of Nigeria finally admitted at its MPC meeting today that its inflexible “strong naira” policy has failed. The move towards a more flexible exchange rate system is a positive step. We... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (May) The fact that Mexican inflation in the first half of this month came in at a weaker-than-expected 2.5% y/y eases some of the pressure on the MPC to tighten monetary policy next month. But if the peso... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary ends easing cycle, Turkey’s has further to run Having cut its policy rate by 15bp to 0.90% earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary’s MPC used the accompanying press release to comment that interest rates would now be left unchanged. In... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus While we have consistently been among the most bearish forecasters of EMs over the past 4-5 years, the consensus has moved a long way in our direction over the past 12 months. Over the next year we... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Surprise rate cut sign of reduced inflation risk The Central Bank of Kenya’s 100bp rate cut (from 11.50% to 10.50%) signals that the Bank believes that inflation is well-anchored. The wide current account deficit will limit the scope for further... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
