Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in food inflation has run its course Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in October, as the recent sharp slowdown in food inflation appears to have bottomed out. But with the central bank focused on supporting growth, the... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy in decent shape on eve of US elections Investor concerns about the outcome of the US presidential election have caused substantial currency and equity market movements in the past few weeks. However, the Vix “fear gauge” has not yet risen... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Oct.) The biggest decline in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves since the start of the year has more to do with movements in exchange rates and asset prices than sales by the People’s Bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What will Egypt’s pound float mean for inflation? The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to float the pound last week, coming alongside a raft of subsidy cuts, means inflation is likely to climb to more than 20% in the coming months. The impact is... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much inflation will the MPC tolerate? We think that the upward revision to the MPC’s inflation forecast was about the right magnitude. But for the Committee to respond to this – or a greater – overshoot of the target, domestic costs... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Markets need not worry about Trump too much Should Donald Trump pull off a surprise victory in Tuesday’s US Presidential election, equities, bond yields, commodity prices and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would probably all fall. But... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA’s tone is becoming more upbeat While the forecasts published in the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy have hardly changed since the August edition, the tone is much more balanced and could probably even be described as... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report presents sanguine economic outlook The unanimous decision by the MPC to leave interest rates and its asset purchases on hold in November did not come as a surprise given the continued run of upbeat news on the health of the economy... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) Russian inflation once again surprised on the downside, falling to 6.1% y/y in October. This is unlikely to cause the central bank to change its mind, and interest rates will almost definitely be kept... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank takes centre stage The most noteworthy market developments last month were prompted by expectations of further policy loosening from Sweden’s Riksbank, with the krona depreciating sharply last month as a result... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt floats pound, currency falls by 30% against the dollar The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to finally adopt a floating exchange rate regime is a positive step and moves the government closer to securing a US$12bn financing package... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - 1.75% may not be the floor We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will follow through on its commitment for further policy easing by cutting interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 10 th... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for December rate hike As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it appears to be intent on hiking interest rates at the upcoming December meeting. Nevertheless, next week’s... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
