Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May 16) Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election confirms continuation of market-friendly policy Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s (PPK) victory in Peru’s presidential election is likely to mean the continuation of the current government’s market-friendly economic policy. While there is a risk that his... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations are rising not falling The decline in long-term inflation expectations to a record low in the University of Michigan’s June consumer confidence survey won’t prevent the Fed from raising interest rates, not least because... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The rise in India’s consumer price inflation last month pushes it further above the RBI’s target for March 2017. This supports our view that there is no further scope for policy loosening. 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling underlying inflation to require more easing The government’s decision to postpone the sales tax hike to 2019 has improved the economic outlook. However, we still believe that the Bank will respond to the recent moderation in underlying... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip There are one or two genuine reasons to worry about the strength of the labour market. But the deeper we dig, the more we’re convinced the spring slowdown in payroll employment growth is a temporary... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC resumes easing cycle The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bp to 10.50% today was a close one but, having decided to start easing policy once again we think that interest rates... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hot housing fires up policy debate If the housing markets in both Australia and New Zealand remain strong, then our forecasts that interest rates will fall to 1.0% in Australia and to 1.75% in New Zealand would look out of reach... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but central banks in no hurry to hike rates Inflation looks set to rise in most of Emerging Asia over the coming year, but probably not by enough to worry policy makers, who will look to keep interest rates low to support growth. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The modest rise in Mexican inflation in May, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in April, in itself is unlikely to have much of a bearing on the central bank’s rate setting meeting later this month given that... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Remain vote would bring rate hike back onto agenda With even overseas central banks citing the EU referendum as a reason not to raise rates this month, the chances of anything from the Bank of England are nil. If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we don... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egyptian inflation jumped to 12.3% y/y in May as the impact of March’s devaluation of the pound continued to feed through into price pressures, while a decision by the government to hike medicine... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s rate cut and restructuring plans The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly lowered its policy rate to a new record low of 1.25% today, marking its first cut since last June. The decision came a day after plans were unveiled for the... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Housing heat changes RBNZ’s rate-cutting timetable Despite leaving interest rates at 2.25% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still hinted that they may fall to 2.0% before long. What’s more, we still think there’s a chance that rates may have to... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won’t move until labour market uncertainty clears The sudden stop in employment growth rules out any chance of a rate hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting, particularly now that the UK vote on whether to leave the European Union (EU) appears... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might the MPC loosen policy after a Brexit? It is by no means guaranteed that the MPC would loosen policy after a Brexit vote. But if it did want to give the economy some extra stimulus, an interest rate cut would not be its only option. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
