Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing risks to deter Norges Bank from raising rates While today’s Norges Bank announcement implies that it still expects to raise interest rates this autumn, we think that below-target inflation and weakness in the housing market will cause the Bank to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jan.) & Unemploy. (Dec.) The Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But this is unlikely to prevent the Riksbank from tightening policy later this year. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) For all the talk about how the incoming Governor will deal with employment being added to the RBNZ’s mandate, the latest data suggest he may spend most of his time wondering why inflation is so low. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for March rate hike Janet Yellen’s final FOMC meeting will pass with little fanfare, but the language of the accompanying policy statement looks set to strike a more hawkish tone. That would leave the Fed on course to... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending suffers as inflation peaks December’s retail sales figures were pretty disappointing, suggesting that the sector grew by 0.4% in Q4 as a whole, half of Q3’s 0.8% rate. What’s more, growth in non-retail spending is likely to... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan too optimistic about inflation outlook For the first time since July 2014, the Bank of Japan didn’t lower its inflation forecasts any further. However, we believe that the Bank is too optimistic about the inflation outlook and we remain... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Should we worry about the “Draghi put”? The ECB has effectively introduced a “put” option on peripheral bonds, pushing yields and spreads down to record lows. Given recent fiscal progress and the likelihood that the ECB normalises policy... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Cuts on the cards in Kenya, Ghana, & Nigeria Interest rates were kept hold today in Kenya & Ghana, and we expect that both will see rate cuts in 2018. Nigeria’s MPC was unable to meet, but policy there will probably also loosen later this year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Exchange rates to diverge as Swedish krona rises Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Capital outflows from China rose slightly in December as Chinese households and firms added to their foreign asset holdings. Looking at the year as a whole, capital outflows fell by 80% in 2017. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes likely to be undone before long The Bank of Canada’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for this year looks overly optimistic given NAFTA and housing-related risks. Despite further increases in household borrowing costs and tougher new... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies: it’s the economy, stupid! The news flow in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the past few weeks has been dominated by political troubles, but currencies have performed surprisingly well. One reason for this is likely to be... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea set for strong 2018, but not because of the Olympics The 2018 Winter Olympics, which get under way in South Korea next month, will not provide much of a boost to the country’s economy. But this will not stop South Korea from recording another year of... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Oil at $70 won’t result in policy tightening We expect the price of Brent crude oil to moderate from $70 per barrel to $55 by the end of 2018. But even if global oil prices remain close to current levels, inflation in Japan would only average 1%... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation could be the big story in 2018 The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December provided clearer evidence that the forces weighing on core inflation last year are now firmly in reverse. Admittedly, core CPI inflation... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
