Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stresses mid-17 exit from koruna cap still likely Despite mounting speculation that the Czech MPC would hint at removing the koruna cap earlier than previously suggested, today’s MPC press statement was surprisingly dovish. We remain of the view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone will be back in the spotlight in 2017 In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Border adjustment proposal is equal parts genius and crazy The switch to a so-called ‘border adjustment’ system of corporate tax, which was included in the House Republicans’ ‘Better Way’ proposals earlier this year, is beginning to draw more attention in the... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bond market sell-off overdone China is ending 2016 on a stronger footing economically but with growing strains in its financial markets. A slight tightening of monetary conditions has snowballed into a bond market sell-off, with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan to resume easing cycle next year Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%, but with growth likely to struggle over the coming year and inflationary pressures very weak, we think it will resume its... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery dependent on China The EM world is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly two years. According to our GDP tracker, EM GDP growth in October reached 3.5% y/y, which is the strongest since January 2015. China has been... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Discord among Riksbank board points to end of loosening While the Riksbank extended QE today, a number of the Executive Board dissented, suggesting that today’s announcement marks the beginning of the end for policy loosening in Sweden. Indeed, despite its... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on hold throughout 2017 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and with fiscal policy taking the lead in boosting growth but inflationary pressures benign, the BoT is likely to keep rates... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key economic calls for 2017 We expect growth in the US to pick up next year as a result of Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus, but in several other advanced economies it is likely to slow. Although headline inflation is set... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017 The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today suggests that the Council thinks the need for additional monetary easing has diminished. As a result, we have taken the very... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2017 The underlying momentum in the economy remains sluggish and circumstances aren’t likely to improve next year, mainly because of a worsening downturn in housing investment. We expect GDP growth to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017 As a result of the recent falls in the peso, Mexico’s headline inflation rate is on course to break through the top end of the central bank’s 2-4% target range next year. While this should prove to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Dec.) A huge rise in manufacturing confidence, to within touching distance of a record high, pushed the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator higher still in December. This calls into question the Riksbank’s... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today. As expected, it upgraded its assessment of the health of the economy, which points to policy remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Bank of Japan’s yield target has kept JGB prices anchored over recent weeks against the backdrop of a sell-off in bond markets overseas. The volume of the Bank’s bond purchases has also remained... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
