Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank leaves door open to easing The Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement once again sounded hawkish on inflation risks. But it also implied that interest rates could be lowered in 2019, supporting our view that the easing... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More easing coming, China still in US crosshairs Policy easing efforts were expanded this week. Fiscal loosening was given the green light. The People’s Bank adopted a more proactive approach to ensuring that its liquidity injections translate into... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Conditions faltering The latest activity figures suggest that EM growth faltered a bit in the middle of Q2. Consumer spending slowed in April and May, while EM industry seems to have started to lose momentum. Forward... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation in Nigeria, violence in Mozambique The available evidence suggests that fears of a pre-election surge in Nigerian inflation are misplaced. Elsewhere, we doubt that violence will derail gas investment in Mozambique and expect that... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tokyo CPI (Jul.) There was a broad-based rise in price pressures in the capital region last month. But while the rise in energy inflation won’t be sustained, the recent pick-up in underlying inflation has further to... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation rises across region, policy response to vary The latest figures show that inflation rose across Latin America in June and early July, but the reaction from the region’s central banks is likely to differ. Policymakers in Mexico will focus more on... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB patient about rate hikes despite positive outlook The ECB made no changes to its policy or forward guidance today and strongly endorsed financial markets’ expectations for interest rates to remain on hold until autumn next year. It also made clear... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep the Fed hiking We anticipate a 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in July, with the unemployment rate falling back below 4% and average hourly earnings posting a 0.3% m/m increase. Despite objections from... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to press ahead with second rate rise in a decade While a vote to raise interest rates on 2nd August is unlikely to be unanimous, we think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead with the second interest rate rise since July 2007. 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for Pakistan after the election? Imran Khan looks set to be confirmed as Pakistan’s next prime minister just as the economy teeters on the brink of a full-blown economic crisis. His plans to boost social spending will have to be... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to tread carefully in policy review Leaks from the Bank of Japan ahead of next week’s Policy Board meeting have prompted speculation that the Board will adjust its policy framework. Any changes would be intended to address the strains... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate hike likely When hiking interest rates at its most recent meeting in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined in large part by incoming data. With several indicators... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Weak balance sheets come into focus Market concerns over fragile balance sheets have forced policymakers in a number of frontier economies to take action over the past month. Strains in the balance of payments prompted the authorities... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Trump criticism won't derail Fed's plans The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But we expect the post-meeting statement to signal that, despite uncertainty over trade policy and criticism from President... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
