Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN hikes rates despite threat to economic recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest rate hike is a belated attempt to regain control over the country’s weakening currency. We expect that the bank will tighten by at least another 200bps later this... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC could still turn to rate cuts The Hungarian MPC seemed to pour cold water on the prospect of additional monetary policy easing in the statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting. However, we think the Council is still too... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Korea’s growth picked up in the second quarter of 2016, but we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters against a backdrop of mounting cyclical and structural headwinds. 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent BoJ from easing An imminent shift from fiscal tightening to loosening has reduced the pressure on the Bank of Japan to provide more stimulus. However, the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate since the start of... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from Brexit: one month on It is early days, but the limited data released since the EU referendum, as well as the reaction in financial markets, support our view that the economic implications of Brexit outside the UK will be... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is a debt problem brewing in Mexico? In contrast to the prevailing view that tight credit conditions have been a constraint on Mexican growth, the debt ratio has actually increased at a reasonably sharp pace over the past five years... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, cuts still in the cards The Central Bank of Kenya decided to hold its key rate at 10.50% today, but we expect that the bank will cut rates later this year as inflation remains within target and Kenya’s external... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% annualised, thanks primarily to a massive 4.5% surge in real consumption. The latter would mark the biggest quarterly gain... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: fresh devaluation on the way Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the Egyptian pound could be on the cusp of (another) devaluation. The initial rumours were sparked by the central bank governor, Tarek Amer, who suggested... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ The recent experience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides two lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia. First, don’t dither when it comes to making decisions otherwise you’ll be punished by a... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly One month after the referendum The economy has clearly taken a hit from the vote to leave the EU last month. Granted, sales values have held up well according to John Lewis, and the latest Bank of England Agents’ Scores were... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strength of consumption Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to a more respectable 2.5% annualised, following a disappointing 1.1% gain in the first quarter. But be aware that the BEA will... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets keep their cool despite slowdown signs Almost a month on from the historic vote to leave the EU, some of the first indicators of the state of the economy appear to point to a marked slowdown in growth. But the prospect of policy support to... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (July) We expect the rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% y/y over June as a whole, to be the start of an upward trend that will ultimately force the central bank... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack After the coup... The failed military coup in Turkey and subsequent government backlash have dominated investors’ concerns over the past week and triggered a sell-off in local financial markets. Policymakers have... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Life after Brexit For the world as a whole, the economic impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union should be negligible. Nonetheless, growth looks set to remain lacklustre in advanced economies. And with... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
