Europe Economic Outlook Brexit vote adds to downside risks The UK’s vote to leave the EU has weakened the outlook for the European Economy. Admittedly, the financial market reaction has been muted and we think that the UK will ultimately fare well outside the... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may bide its time, but action needed very soon The European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from loosening policy this month following the Bank of England’s inaction. But the Brexit vote has increased what were already significant downside risks to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC must deliver in August The Monetary Policy Committee’s inaction today will probably delay a policy response to the UK’s vote to leave the EU by only three weeks. But with market confidence fragile, it is now vitally... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea in wait-and-see mode Following its move last month to cut rates in response to rising downside risks to growth, the Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.25%. We think it will take... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts GDP growth forecast The Bank of Canada shocked no-one with its decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today, but we still anticipate that it will eventually be forced to cut rates again, probably in the... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia jumps on easing bandwagon Malaysia's central bank (BNM) today unexpectedly lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0%, adding to the list of Asian central banks that have cut rates this year. But with growth still on track to... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EMs sail through headwinds Financial markets in the emerging world have sailed through recent headwinds stemming from a continued depreciation of the renminbi and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. And the rally may not... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus After the referendum - how will the housing market fare? The movements in housebuilder share prices in the past two weeks could be a sign that a slump in house price expectations is about to trigger a fresh house price correction. But if we are right, and... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary revamps monetary framework…again Planned changes by the National Bank of Hungary to its benchmark three-month deposit facility announced this afternoon could act to loosen monetary conditions, although in practice they seem unlikely... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Nikkei about to be lifted by ‘helicopter money’? We remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for Japanese equities. However, this is based on the assumption that ‘conventional’ QE will drag the yen lower again, rather than the financing of... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Indian consumer price inflation held steady in June, but it remains some way above the RBI's target for March 2017. As such, the scope for further monetary loosening still looks very limited. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to slow but stay above target We think that Indian consumer price inflation dropped in June, but it is likely to have remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. There is little reason to think that... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June) Swedish inflation hit a four-year high in June, but it is still low. So although domestic price pressures are rising, the Riksbank may still have to take further policy action. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June 16) The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the Brexit vote? The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to look through the inflationary consequences of the drop in the pound seen since the Brexit vote and focus instead on cushioning the... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
