India Economics Update Monsoon impact on inflation limited July’s consumer price inflation data is likely to show that the headline rate edged down but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. Suggestions from many commentators... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ to signal rates may fall below 2.0% When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Thursday 11 th August, we expect it to cut interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% and to confirm that it is willing to reduce rates further. A stubbornly high... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but cut likely soon The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% today came as no surprise. However, with price pressures benign and growth likely to slow later this year, we think a... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will US equities shrug off a rebound in the dollar? The US stock market shrugged off some renewed appreciation of the dollarafter the UK’s vote for Brexit – indeed, the S&P 500 rose to a record high inJuly. However, we expect further strength in the US... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What could the MPC’s “package of measures” consist of The package of policy options the MPC will unveil on 4th August could include rate cuts, the purchase of gilts and corporate bonds, an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), forward... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stimulus package doesn’t let the BoJ off the hook The fiscal stimulus package approved by the Cabinet today will boost growth by much less than the headline figure suggests. As such, the Bank of Japan still has more work to do reach its 2% inflation... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rates in Australia may yet have to fall to 1.0% If it is going to weaken the Australian dollar to help solve its low inflation problem, the Reserve Bank of Australia may have to follow today’s 0.25% interest rate cut to a new record low of 1.5%... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rates to stay on hold as Rajan heads for the exit Governor Raghuram Rajan has had a penchant for shocking financial markets during his three years at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but we doubt that there are any surprises in store when... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Stars continue to align for EM equities The rally in emerging market (EM) equities has been given another leg up as it has become less likely that the Fed will hike interest rates any time soon, and China’s economy has shown signs of... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to reach new record lows We believe that a new era of stubbornly low underlying inflation will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates in Australia from 1.75% now to 1.00% next year and to reduce rates in New Zealand from 2... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Yet more policy easing to come We have scaled back our forecasts for rate hikes in the US, but still expect the Fed to raise interest rates further than is priced in by financial markets during the coming two years. At the same... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak GDP will give Fed reason to pause Despite the more hawkish language in last week’s FOMC statement, the GDP data have significantly reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike. The economy has been growing at around 1% annualised for... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How could fiscal policy be reset? We think new Chancellor Philip Hammond’s fiscal policy “reset” resulting from Brexit will involve some discretionary loosening. This will come on top of automatic stabilisers which will lower receipts... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Central Bank puts its money where its mouth is Nigeria’s self-proclaimed move to a more “flexible” exchange rate last month was initially a disappointment, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reasserting its grip at N282/US$. Over the last week... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up FX interventions Stock markets in China have had a volatile end to the month. Meanwhile, the PBOC appears to have stepped up its foreign currency interventions in order to prevent the renminbi from weakening further... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom Slightly stronger-than-expected inflation figures, coupled with the renewed fall in the ruble, prompted the Russian central bank to pause its easing cycle today, but we think inflation should resume... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
