UK Economics Weekly MPC presses ahead, economy makes a decent start to Q3 After the recent run of upbeat economic news the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to raise rates this week came as little surprise. And the hawkish tone of the Minutes and Inflation Report lent... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa: Rate cuts continue, land reform fears overdone While policymakers in other EMs are hiking rates, we think that African central banks will follow Kenya's recent example and continue to ease policy over the next 18 months. Fears surrounding the... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Jul.) July’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster energy and food inflation, while underlying price pressures remained very weak. And with the franc set to remain strong by historical standards, we... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines central bank to turn more aggressive? Rising inflationary pressures mean that the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, the only question is by how much. 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The rise in Turkish inflation to a 15-year high of 15.8% y/y last month, coming alongside further lira weakness following the imposition of US sanctions, strengthens the case for interest rate hikes... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rate cut still likely before the end of the year Given the recent rebound in inflation, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. But with growth continuing to disappoint and inflation likely... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal binge, RBI credibility Data released this week show a rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early part of this fiscal year. This is a common occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in the latter... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC: Another hike on the cards in November The new forecasts accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was raised by 25bp – suggest that another hike is likely in November. In 2019, we think that interest rates... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC starts gradual process of policy normalisation Despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s hawkish forecasts accompanying the second rise in interest rates for a decade, markets are still anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: assessing the fallout from US sanctions The sanctions imposed by the US on two Turkish government ministers in themselves aren’t very big, but it looks likely that more measures will be announced. The lira is likely to fall further... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank looking through inflation spike The slightly more dovish language in the Brazilian central bank’s post-meeting statement adds weight to our view that policymakers are untroubled by the recent spike in inflation. And while a... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hinting that rates may rise later While leaving interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9 th August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably acknowledge the recent softening in activity by revising down the GDP... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticking to its guns As was widely expected, the Fed left interest rates on hold today but, by upgrading its assessment of economic growth to “strong” in the accompanying policy statement, it hinted that it will keep... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to beef up forward guidance with neutral rate estimate The Bank of England is expected to publish an estimate of the neutral interest rate (i.e. the level at which rates have neither an expansionary nor a contractionary effect on growth and inflation) for... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian krone to weaken even as interest rates rise The Norges Bank will soon start to tighten monetary policy. But in contrast to the consensus view, we think that as interest rates rise over the next few years, the krone will depreciate against the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI decisive amid inflation rise The RBI opted to tighten policy again today against a backdrop of strong growth and rising inflation. The swiftness with which the central bank has responded to the jump in inflation should prevent... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
