Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening to come in Indonesia Today’s rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) comes against a backdrop of continued weak economic growth and subdued inflation, and demonstrates that BI’s main focus remains supporting the currency. With... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand: Why always me? The rand’s status as a liquid, easily traded currency makes it particularly vulnerable to shifts in EM sentiment. But these seldom last, and the SARB will not – as some expect – respond by hiking... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation moderated in July after hitting a five-year high in June. But core inflation remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s tightening cycle still has a little further... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would abolishing cash help overcome deflation? Abolishing cash would allow the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. But in a society where cash transactions are still widespread, such a move would prove deeply... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unlikely to respond to FX weakness EM currencies have come under pressure over the past few days as Turkey’s crisis has escalated, but history suggests that such sentiment-driven sell-offs tend to be short-lived. We wouldn’t expect the... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Growth in bank lending picked up last month to the fastest pace this year. However, a further slowdown in other forms of credit, including shadow financing, mean that broad credit growth continued to... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Indian consumer price inflation in July was due in most part to a sharp fall in food inflation. Core inflation remained elevated. As such, we think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Uganda Interest Rates Policymakers at the Bank of Uganda kept the policy rate unchanged at their meeting this morning and we don’t expect any rate cuts for the remainder of this year. 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Turkey parallels The falling rand has, yet again, highlighted the currency’s vulnerability to EM risk sentiment. From an economic perspective, however, the country’s situation is very different from Turkey’s building... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the crisis in Turkey mean for Asia? There is a good chance that the recent volatility in financial markets triggered by the crisis in Turkey will prompt Bank Indonesia into hiking interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday. For most... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Turkey’s banks? The collapse in the lira has raised concerns about the health of Turkey’s banking sector. Banks’ dollar bonds yields and interbank interest rates are already pointing towards some stress, and these... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB won’t welcome franc’s safe haven boost The renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc this week as investors sought out safe haven assets will not have been welcomed by the SNB. But the franc is still weaker than it has been over the past few... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Graft scandal rattles Argentine markets The Turkish lira may have surpassed the Argentine peso as the worst performing EM currency this year, but Argentine markets have still had a rough week. The lesson from other parts of Latin America is... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Cuts to official policy rates are coming soon Market interbank rates have now converged with those offered by the People’s Bank in its lending operations. We think the central bank will soon start cutting these official policy rates in order to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
