UK Economics Weekly Should rising domestic inflationary pressure worry the MPC? Inflation proved unexpectedly sticky in January, remaining unchanged at 3.0%, contrary to the consensus expectation for it to fall. However, we don’t think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect The Egyptian central bank’s easing cycle, which started last night, is likely to result in larger interest rate cuts than most anticipate. We expect an additional 650bp of rate cuts by the end of 2019... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will policymakers help housing? Recent suggestions by the Australian Treasurer that APRA could ease its current restrictions on mortgage lending seem to be motivated more by politics than financial stability. With the RBA and APRA... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: interest rates to be cut by less than most expect The decision by Argentina’s central bank to pause its easing cycle last night was accompanied by another cautious statement, reinforcing our view that interest rates will be cut by less than most... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in January, but stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose last month. With reasons to think that core... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates cuts not far off Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today but, in contrast to the consensus, we think that rate cuts will come onto the agenda soon. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Chance of another interest rate hike in May growing The increase in markets’ expectations for official interest rates that occurred in the build-up to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) February Inflation Report proved justified. The MPC revised... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in January, but the bigger story was the broad-based 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices. In three-month annualised terms, core inflation climbed to a... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are regional banks’ capital ratios falling? If the Bank of Japan were to reverse course on monetary loosening in the near future, it would more likely be a response to worries about financial stability than high inflation. The recent... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update No surprises from cautious Riksbank Given that the Riksbank called time on its net asset purchases just one meeting ago, it was always unlikely that the Bank would make any major policy changes today. In order to test the water ahead of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to adjust policy The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today was no surprise given the backdrop of an improving economy but very weak price pressures. There was nothing in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook MPC to respond to robust growth with more rate hikes Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Bank lending has continued to slow and Japanese banks are no longer gaining market share in the cross-border lending market. However, one reason is that non-financial firms are increasingly turning to... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) The slight easing of consumer price inflation in January was due to a decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remained elevated and is set to rise further. We remain comfortable with our... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy turning the corner The latest data suggest that the worst of the downturn in the Saudi economy had passed in late 2017 and a recovery should get underway over the coming months. The limited evidence so far suggests that... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
