Bank of Canada Watch Bank to stand pat until Trump’s plans become more clear The unexpected decline in monthly GDP in October, together with the moderation in the new measures of core CPI inflation, might have prompted the Bank of Canada to reconsider cutting interest rates at... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects Mexico’s central bank has sufficient ammunition to intervene on an intermittent basis in FX markets to counter sharp selloffs in the peso. But the bigger picture is that interest rate hikes will... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Polish MPC suggests monetary tightening is long way off Dovish comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference suggest that the MPC is as focused on growth as it is on inflation. We continue to think... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further drop in Brazilian inflation in December seals the deal for a larger cut in the Selic interest rate at today’s COPOM meeting (decision due 18.20 local time). A 75bp cut is possible, but we... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) A drop in food inflation pulled down headline consumer price inflation in December. We expect it to leap in January, but the increase is unlikely to be a major concern for policymakers. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates On past form, the latest fall in the Turkish lira appears to be sufficiently large to trigger an interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. If the Council doesn’t act, that will only reinforce... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy entering 2017 with some momentum The world economy is entering 2017 with stronger growth and rising inflation, but prospects for the rest of the year are more mixed. Activity has picked up in unison across the major economies in... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Romania was less hawkish than we had expected. Nonetheless, with further fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and economic slack now exhausted... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected drop in Chilean inflation to a three-year low of 2.7% y/y, taking it further below the central bank’s 3% target, probably seals the deal for a 25bp interest rate cut (to 3.25%... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation pushing prices down Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in December as price discounting continued following demonetisation. However, further ahead, demonetisation could push inflation up by leading to... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies depreciating against US dollar Following a host of central bank meetings last month, most of the Swiss and Nordic currencies fell against the US dollar. While there were few major changes for bond yields, equities in most countries... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2017 In our first Watch of 2017, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming 12 months. The government’s demonetisation measures will lead to some weakness at the beginning of the year... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy fuels risks in Vietnam Q4 GDP figures for Vietnam, which are due to be published sometime over the next couple of weeks, are likely to show the economy is continuing to expand at a rapid rate. However, the risks facing the... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 We expect Japan’s economy to grow by 1% next year. Given how low potential growth is, this should be enough to drive a further decline in spare capacity and to add to price pressures. The Bank of... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
