China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves data suggest that the People’s Bank has not been directly intervening to limit the renminbi’s recent gains against the dollar. That partly reflects the fact that the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Consensus underestimating scope for Icelandic rate rises As the recent rise in inflation has been due to temporary exchange rate effects, it was little surprise that the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today. But with further rises in... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI turns more hawkish The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise but it sounded notably more hawkish in the policy statement. This supports our non-consensus view that rate hikes are likely... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise The usual pattern around Chinese New Year is for inflation to rise sharply either in January or February and fall in the other month. This year, we think inflation will have picked up in both. And... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hints it’s in no rush to raise rates The jitters in the financial markets are due to concerns that global interest rates will rise rapidly, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did its part to calm fears by leaving interest rates at... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Easing financial conditions pose a problem for the Fed Despite long-term Treasury yields rising sharply this week to their highest level in four years, broader measures suggest that overall financial conditions have actually continued to loosen. Corporate... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which was above the consensus estimate but in line with our own forecast, leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise rates in March. And with signs that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will the ECB do about rising Bund yields? German Bund yields continued to rise this week, with the 10-year yield hitting a 29-month high. Higher yields are unlikely to have much of a direct effect on the German economy, but by boosting the... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ underscores line in the sand The Bank of Japan’s offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds today for the first time since July has dampened expectations that policymakers are about to withdraw stimulus. As a result, the yen has... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could strike more hawkish tone With the data continuing to surprise the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the upside and the Governor sounding encouraged by progress in Brexit negotiations and a bit more upbeat on the outlook... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hikes, but likely to pause next month The statement accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was hiked by 25bp – suggests that the Council will hold fire at its next meeting on 29th March. Even so, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland to raise rates later this year Inflation pressures seem to be rising faster than we had expected. As a result, we now see the Central Bank of Iceland raising interest rates this year. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB and BoJ in no rush to follow the Fed Contrary to suggestions that the ECB and Bank of Japan are gearing up to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, we think they will be happy to trail a long way behind the Fed and Bank of... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Spencer to play it safe at his penultimate meeting The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will almost certainly leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 8th February and, in the accompanying Monetary Policy... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
