Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Life after the booms The economy will probably cope reasonably well even though both the mining and housing booms are over, but over the next couple of years it is unlikely to strengthen as much as policymakers hope. Over... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE has changed this year in more ways than one In addition to reducing the monthly pace of its asset purchases from €60bn to €30bn, in January the ECB also changed the composition of its purchases. Corporate sector debt now accounts for a larger... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Severe weather won’t cool growth in Q1 The likely dent to retail sales, spending on consumer services and construction output as a result of February’s bad weather will make the economy look fragile. But the hit to the economy will be... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch How big a deal is the new lower inflation target? The Norges Bank’s new inflation target strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy. But we think that the Bank will move very cautiously. 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts rates, but policy tightening on the horizon The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates by 25bp, to 2.75%, was accompanied by a statement that left the door open for one more cut in the easing cycle. But the big picture is that... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway CPI (Feb) & Iceland GDP (Q4) Inflation in Norway rose quite sharply in February, but we do not think that it is about to surge. Meanwhile, Icelandic GDP growth would have been negative in Q4 was it not for a one-off intellectual... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New BoJ leadership will stay the course Sluggish wage growth, subdued inflation expectations and the renewed strengthening of the exchange rate suggest that inflation will remain below the Bank’s 2% target for the foreseeable future. The... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength another stumbling block for BoJ The yen would have to strengthen much further before it turns into a major drag on export competitiveness and corporate profits. However, the recent appreciation should bring the pick-up in goods... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Are interest rate rises in Switzerland in sight? In an environment of global uncertainty, the Swiss National Bank will be wary of exacerbating any upward pressure on the safe haven franc when it meets on 15th March. Admittedly, its forecast for... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Loosening bias gone, but tightening is some way off The ECB’s decision to remove the loosening bias from its monetary policy statement today was arguably the first step along a path of policy normalisation. But note that its balance sheet will continue... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada won't risk further rate hikes The Bank of Canada implied in its policy statement this morning that, despite growing concerns around trade, it still believes further interest rate increases will be needed later this year. That said... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC still dovish, but rate hikes not too far away Governor Glapinski struck a dovish tone in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting. However, we think that inflation will rise faster than the central bank anticipates over the coming... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland on hold for time being Little has changed since the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) last policy meeting, so we expect it to keep policy unchanged next week. Later this year, we see the Bank raising interest rates. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Nordic and Swiss equities continue to struggle? After a tough start to 2018, we think that equities in the Nordic countries and Switzerland will continue to struggle over the next couple of years. But their performance will be far from uniform. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian rates to stay on hold Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today following a hike at its last meeting in January. With inflation slowing, growth likely to cool further and the currency strong... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
