UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign that the economy has slowed in Q4 Both households and businesses appear to have been undeterred by Brexit uncertainty in Q3. What’s more, the latest business surveys suggest that the economy will turn in another solid performance in... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose despite Trump win The latest data show that global monetary conditions remain exceptionally accommodative. Monetary aggregates and bank lending to the private sector are rising at a steady pace, and although government... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly The other shoe just dropped The rebound in third-quarter GDP mainly reflects volatility in energy production rather than any fundamental improvement in the economy. Excluding energy, GDP has been growing at less than 1%... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness to feed inflation rebound The recent weakening of the yen will lift headline inflation by around 0.5 percentage points in coming months and further gains are likely if, as we have been forecasting for a while, the yen weakens... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Dealing with demonetisation The liquidity-draining measures that were eventually introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deal with the rush of cash entering the banking system after the demonetisation announcement have... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update External market drivers Trump domestic factors The election of Donald Trump in the US drove large moves in Nordic and Swiss financial markets last month, with currencies generally depreciating against the US dollar while long-term bond yields... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE to be extended as risks to growth outlook rise Amid heightened political and economic uncertainty, President Mario Draghi seems set to announce another six-month extension to the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme this month. We expect purchases to... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets under-estimating political risks? Don’t draw too much comfort from the markets’ muted response to political risks in the euro-zone. It may not tell us much about the scale of the threats facing the currency union and it may not last. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK financial system coping well with uncertainty While the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) suggested that the UK financial system has fared well during recent uncertainty, it highlighted lingering risks. Nonetheless, we think that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.) The surprise acceleration of inflation in Kenya and Uganda raises a risk to our view that both countries central banks will loosen policy. But we expect that rates will still fall. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Talk of rate hikes is premature The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to play either Santa or Scrooge at its meeting on Tuesday 6th December, as it will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5%. And we believe that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong dollar making life hard for the PBOC The renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar quickened in November, with the Chinese currency reaching fresh multi-year lows against its US counterpart. We expect it to breach 7.0 against the US... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate cut until early next year The rebound in third-quarter GDP likely means that the Bank of Canada will leave its economic projections and policy interest rate unchanged next Wednesday. But policymakers will still have doubts... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong earnings push equity markets to ten-month high Chinese equities extended their rally in November, hitting the highest since January. The renminbi fell to an eight-year low against the US dollar, but strengthened against the trade-weighted basket... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
