Global Central Bank Watch How will Trump’s victory affect global monetary policy? With President Trump set to implement a large fiscal stimulus next year, US inflation and interest rates will both rise more rapidly than seemed likely a month ago. This has already had knock-on... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon Interbank interest rates in Saudi Arabia have edged down over the past month as investor sentiment towards the Kingdom has improved and policy moves have helped to ease liquidity constraints at banks... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Oct.) Chilean activity data for October were slightly worse than expected and suggest that the economy got off to a disappointing start in Q4. They’re probably not enough to convince the central bank to... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, but hikes in the pipeline The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept rates on hold at its meeting today, but with credit growing at an unsustainable pace, inflationary pressures building, and the US Federal Reserve set to... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Policy loosening will proceed gradually The Central Bank of Kenya has paused its loosening cycle for now, but further cuts are likely in 2017. We expect that the bank’s key policy rate will end 2017 at 9.00%. 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will lower rates give the housing market another boost? Interest rates are an important driver of housing demand, but they are not the only factor. And restricted access to mortgage credit, rather than its cost, is currently actin as the biggest drag on... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain The 50% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar since the central bank floated the currency at the start of November will cause economic growth to slow sharply in the coming quarters... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone money and credit data remain consistent with steady economic growth. But a renewed pick-up in money and lending growth will be needed before the ECB can feel comfortable about... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong domestic demand helping to offset weak exports Regional GDP growth held steady at just under 4% last quarter, with buoyant domestic demand again helping to offset weak exports. With subdued global growth set to continue holding back exports, the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ set to taper its JGB purchases A further rise in global government bond yields may put the Bank of Japan’s yield target under pressure but we nonetheless believe the Bank will be able to reduce its asset purchases next year while... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation continued to climb in the first half of November, rising to 3.3% y/y from 3.1% y/y over the whole of October. And, following the sharp depreciation of the peso over recent weeks, we... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but rhetoric turns hawkish Today’s press conference saw the SARB leave rates on hold but take a notably hawkish tone.Policymakers seem to be rowing back their claim that the tighten cycle is coming to an end. 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
