US Economics Weekly Gridlock increasingly likely after Sessions firing The results of this week’s midterm elections were in line with expectations, but President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to fire his Attorney General Jeff Sessions would seem to reduce the odds... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform boost for Vietnam, regional growth slows The opening up of Vietnam’s economy has gathered pace over the pace couple of months, with the government pressing ahead with a series of reforms which should boost the country’s economic prospects... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s weaker-than-expected inflation data suggest that the Norges Bank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates again. We expect it to wait until next March before making its next move, and... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks getting more confident Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand displayed a little more confidence in their optimistic forecasts when they left interest rates unchanged this week. We think that... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update December rate hike coming As universally anticipated, the Fed left rates on hold today and there was nothing in the policy statement to suggest that officials are wavering from their plans to hike interest rates again in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China stimulus will not prevent global slowdown China is the only major economy which is likely to implement a significant policy stimulus in the coming year. However, its impact on the rest of the world will be small. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates set to stay on hold in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia today left interest rates unchanged at 3.25% and gave no hint in its accompanying statement that it is in a rush to change its policy stance anytime soon. Whereas the consensus is... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) We expect the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 to continue over the coming quarters as the economy faces headwinds from tighter monetary policy and a weakening external environment. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ turns a little more hawkish The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted its inflation forecasts a little bit when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But it still signalled that rates won’t rise until... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: More hawkish tone suggests rate hikes are near The relatively more hawkish tone adopted by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference today suggests that the start of a monetary tightening cycle isn’t too far away. We think that... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.6% y/y, reinforces our view that Copom will hold off from starting a tightening cycle for a few more months. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland hikes and signals more to come Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook The hawkish tone of the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” announcements have helped to push up interest rate expectations a little and have fuelled a rise in sterling over the past week. But we doubt... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: soft labour market temporary, rates to rise further The recent uptick in Chilean unemployment has prompted some analysts to suggest that interest rates may not rise much further. But the central bank doesn’t seem too concerned and we think that any... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
