Rate hike on its way, but a dovish shift further ahead?

There was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, nor in the latest data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will raise interest rates on August 2^nd. Admittedly, Jonathan Haskel’s testimony in front of the Treasury Committee suggests that he might take a more dovish stance than his predecessor, Ian McCafferty, when he takes his place on the MPC in September. But it is probably too soon to form any strong judgements on his likely voting behaviour. Overall, then, we remain comfortable with our view that rates will rise in August with another hike following in November.