Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle to be larger than most expect in 2017 The Russian central bank’s post-meeting press conference provided the firmest signs yet that the easing cycle will resume next year. Governor Nabiullina’s comment that Q2 was the most likely time for... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but hikes likely to resume in 2017 Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a tenth consecutive month last night, but with the risks to inflation firmly skewed to the upside, we expect policy tightening to resume... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan to leave policy rates unchanged At its last meeting, the Bank of Japan sounded the alarm over a decline in price pressures. However, the economy has continued to grow faster than potential and the recent sharp weakening of the yen... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t follow the Fed The unanimous decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed has resumed tightening... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tightening still consistent with strong commodity demand Yesterday’s US rate hike was widely anticipated, which probably explains the relatively muted responses in commodity markets. We expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening in 2017, which... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia holds rates, currency worries to remain a constraint Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today demonstrates the central bank’s focus remains on supporting the rupiah. With interest rates in the US likely to rise... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weak inflation to prompt Norges Bank rate cut in 2017 The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for growth and inflation. While policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s ultra-loose policy won’t stop franc rising against euro The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention was as expected. The Bank may have drawn some comfort from the franc’s recent decline... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, but cut in 2017 likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with the growth outlook deteriorating and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut in 2017. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates & looks to accelerate tightening in 2017 As universally expected, the Fed today raised interest rates for the second time in this economic cycle, with that hike coming a full year after the first increase and more than seven years after the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Can sterling hold onto its recent gains? The continued rally in sterling over the past month or so means that it is now around 10% lower on a trade-weighted basis relative to where it stood on the eve of the EU referendum, rather than the 15... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia moves to stabilise the ringgit The Malaysian central bank (BNM) has introduced a range of measures to stabilise the ringgit, which has been the region’s worst performing currency over the past month. The most significant step it... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rate cut may not be the last The Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI’s) decision to cut interest rates before the next phase of capital account liberalisation came as a surprise. While the strong economy calls for policy tightening in... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) The jump in new lending last month was largely seasonal. Broad credit growth did pick up slightly but the increase was small and is unlikely to elicit a major policy response. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Low inflation cements Riksbank loosening As inflation was a touch weaker in November than the Riksbank anticipated, monetary policy is set to be loosened further. While we expect the Riksbank to announce an extension of QE, the already-weak... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
