RBA Watch A wilting desire to raise interest rates An apparent wilting desire to raise interest rates means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd July and probably won’t raise rates... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut adds to signs of monetary policy shift Yesterday’s required reserve ratio (RRR) cut is officially intended to support banks’ debt-to-equity swaps rather than mark a shift away from deleveraging and toward monetary easing. But in practice... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB dovish, Norges Bank hawkish, Sweden ETI strong This week’s quarterly policy statement from the Swiss National Bank strengthened our view that tighter monetary policy in Switzerland is a long way off. By contrast, higher interest rates are imminent... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Dollar driven by rate outlook rather than trade fears The Canadian dollar hit a 12-month low this week, dropping to 75 cents against the US dollar. It started this year above 80 cents. Despite that decline, markets appear to be sanguine about the risks... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly RRR cut imminent, investment restrictions coming Escalating trade tensions with the US have led the news abroad, but in China much of the focus over the past week has been on the outlook for the domestic economy and policy. An RRR cut appears... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly An August hike, manufacturing rebound, Brexit deadlock The hawkish tone of this week’s MPC Minutes supports our long-held view that the Committee will raise rates in August. Elsewhere, this week’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided us with some... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymakers signal further tightening Over the past week the central banks of Indonesia, the Philippines and India have all signalled that further monetary policy tightening is only a matter of time. Elsewhere, however, with inflation... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Headwinds building The latest hard activity figures suggest that EM growth held up well going into Q2, but that headwinds to the macroeconomic outlook are starting to build. The most recent trade figure show that EM... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC on track for an August hike While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stopped short of explicitly committing to a rate hike in August, the hawkish tone of June’s Minutes & Statement suggest that it is pretty likely. 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank to keep policy on hold With economic growth fairly strong and inflationary pressures subdued, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided today to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.375%. The dovish tone of the Bank’s accompanying... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Krone to weaken despite Norges Bank tightening Today’s policy announcement by the Norges Bank shows that it is on the brink of raising interest rates. But once it has started, it will tighten policy only very slowly. And because we forecast oil... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sticks to its dovish script amid political concerns Despite the ECB calling time on its asset purchase programme last week, the Swiss National Bank today left its monetary policy stance unchanged and cited worries about franc strength, political... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
