Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s interest rate hike by the Turkish central bank was just large enough to buy support for the lira, but we think further hikes in the key policy rates will, ultimately, be needed in the coming... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Focus turns to policy tightening The sharp fall in the Turkish lira has forced the central bank to tinker with its monetary policy setup in an effort to shore up the currency, and we think hikes in key policy interest rates loom... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Has the Bank of Japan finished easing? With the recent improvement in the inflation outlook, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to ease further in 2017 but any speculation about policy tightening will prove premature. In fact, the Bank’s pledge... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada focused on US rather than domestic risks Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz surprised the markets last week with his admission that an interest rate cut was still “on the table” if one of the Bank’s downside risks became reality. The... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey adds to case for loose ECB policy With the euro-zone economy performing fairly well and headline inflation on the up, the results of last week’s Bank Lending Survey were a timely reminder to the ECB that its job is far from done... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rising wage growth won’t worry the MPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has stated that it is willing to look through a period of exchange-rate driven above-target inflation, one of its conditions is that there are no significant... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sees sustained rise in inflation as a distant prospect President Draghi explained today that the ECB saw the recent rise in inflation as transient and outlined some tough conditions for future policy normalisation which are unlikely to be met for a very... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna: when will cap be lifted and how far will CZK rise? We think it is most likely that the Czech MPC will remove the koruna ceiling at its meeting on 4th May. Following this, we are forecasting that the koruna will appreciate to 25.5/€ from 27/€ at... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep interest rates unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and with inflation set to rise later in the year and the currency likely to come under renewed downward pressure as the Fed continues... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian rates to stay on hold in 2017 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. With the economy now recovering and the ringgit vulnerable to turns in investor sentiment... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in wait-and-see mode Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly what policies the incoming Trump administration will pursue south of the border, we have every sympathy with the Bank of Canada’s decision to... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Corporate debt affordability remains extraordinarily high, as corporate profit margins have rebounded and borrowing costs have continued to decline. Firms have responded with higher corporate bond... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
