UK Markets Chart Pack MPC set to embark on tightening cycle The collective view of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June was that “an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period” would be necessary if the economy evolves in line with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position on the mend The improvement in Egypt’s balance of payments position over the past eighteen months should be sustained, providing some support to the pound. Accordingly, inflation should resume its downward trend... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery set to resume The recovery in Latin America stalled in Q2, but we expect regional growth to accelerate over the coming quarters and our GDP forecasts for 2018-19 are generally above consensus. The main exception is... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN muddies the water Nigeria’s MPC left its key rate on hold at 14.00%, and hawkish language has led us to remove the rate cuts that we’d previously pencilled in for Q4. Confusingly, the governor also announced unorthodox... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC: further hints that tightening is on the cards The Hungarian MPC’s post-meeting communications reinforced the message that the MPC is inching towards a tightening cycle. For our part, we think inflation is likely to rise further than most think... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank bows to Erdogan The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.75%, when most had expected at least a 100bp hike, suggests that President Erdogan is already using his strengthened... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Loosening drive gains momentum The State Council has called for more proactive fiscal policy, including additional tax cuts. This follows further, large liquidity injections by the People’s Bank. While the direct impact of these... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed in June, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. While policymakers will keep their key rate on hold tomorrow, they will probably cut later this... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much longer can QQE remain in place? The BoJ has been able to drastically slow the pace of its acquisition of Japanese Government Bonds since it adopted a 0% yield target, which should quells doubts about the policy’s long-run viability... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate hikes coming in the Andes Central banks in Colombia and Chile are set to leave interest rates unchanged at their meetings next week, but we think rates are likely to rise sooner, and a little further, than the markets are... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive monthly data, Japan deal not a game-changer Recent euro-zone data releases have generally been encouraging, supporting our view that GDP growth picked up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the EU-Japan trade deal, signed this week, is... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong growth will keep Fed hiking despite Trump The GDP data due next week are likely to show the economy expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter. Uncertainty over trade policy appears to be worrying some firms but, with little sign so far... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC FX policy becoming more hands-on again The People’s Bank appears to be leaning against downward market pressure on the renminbi. But the depreciation it has allowed so far will already provide a cushion for China’s exporters as they face... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB lagging behind in the monetary tightening cycle Economic growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics looks set to remain pretty strong over the coming years. But inflationary pressures vary significantly between countries. We think that central... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Softer data won’t deter MPC The financial markets are probably right to assume that an interest rate rise in August is still more likely than not. Somewhat counterintuitively, lower inflation might make it easier for the MPC to... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
