Europe Economics Update Portuguese bond yields to climb further as ECB nears limits Portuguese government bonds rallied last week, but we doubt that this will continue. Sooner or later, we think that concerns about the sovereign credit rating and falling ECB asset purchases will push... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged up in y/y terms last month, but dropped in m/m terms as price discounting continued to take place following demonetisation. Nevertheless, further ahead... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar being buffeted by opposing forces With commodity prices and interest rate differentials pulling the Canadian dollar in different directions again this year, our baseline scenario is that it will remain broadly unchanged, increasing... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Political turbulence won’t knock economy off course Last week’s abortive army mutiny has focused attention on the political fragility of Côte d’Ivoire, which suffered a series of political and economic crises between 1993 and 2011. But we expect that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone wage growth set to take off? Wage growth was subdued in 2016, but the recent decline in the euro-zone unemployment rate to an 87-month low, taken in isolation, points to a strong pick-up from here. On the face of it, that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Poor infrastructure to remain a drag on growth Poor infrastructure remains a major constraint on economic growth prospects across large parts of Emerging Asia. A couple of countries, namely the Philippines and Thailand, are likely to see a big... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar? The appreciation of the US dollar since the end of last year has prompted renewed concerns over the sustainability of currency pegs in the Gulf, but we think these fears are overdone. Oil prices are... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank left its key policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for the twelfth consecutive month, but with inflation still above target and the risks skewed to the upside, we expect... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much spare capacity is left? Recent revisions to the GDP data suggest that the output gap has all but closed. However, the main factor holding back inflation over the last two decades were entrenched deflation expectations rather... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, but easing in 2017 likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with growth likely to slow further and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut later this year. 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hold its course despite rising inflation The ECB will not announce any policy changes next week after last month’s pledge to buy at least €60bn of assets per month until the end of 2017. President Draghi is likely to restate the Governing... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Next Riksbank move will be to tighten monetary policy Today’s minutes confirmed that only half of the Riksbank’s Executive Board supported the extension of its QE programme. And with inflation surpassing expectations in December, there is little cause... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to stand pat until Trump’s plans become more clear The unexpected decline in monthly GDP in October, together with the moderation in the new measures of core CPI inflation, might have prompted the Bank of Canada to reconsider cutting interest rates at... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
