Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to leave rates unchanged for some time The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today and there was little indication in the governor’s accompanying press conference that the central bank is in any hurry to adjust policy. We... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada gambles on rate hike The Bank of Canada’s decision to begin raising interest rates is a gamble that might have to be reversed before long. With the housing bubble already showing signs of bursting and household debt at... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could households withstand higher interest rates? Household debt has remained elevated in the euro-zone as a whole, but there has been significant deleveraging in the countries that needed it most. Given positive trends in the labour market, we... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam rate cut fuels financial risks Vietnam’s decision to cut interest rates today risks fuelling a further surge in credit growth, increasing the risk of a sharp rise in non-performing loans further down the line. We think the rate cut... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly External pressures mounting in Pakistan The “devaluation” of the Pakistani rupee earlier in the week is a reminder of the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency fall much... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes rates but hints at end of tightening cycle The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision late last night to hike its benchmark overnight deposit rate by 200bp, to 18.75%, was largely a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts, which will... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unlikely to tighten even if sales tax hike is delayed We now expect the government to delay the sales tax hike currently scheduled for October 2019 beyond 2020. While this would remove one obstacle to policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, the bigger... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household indebtedness weighs on the economic outlook The rising level of household debt in Australia presents a clear risk to the economic outlook and helps in part to explain why we expect the pace of consumer spending to slow this year. What’s more... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish, but divisions growing The press statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained extremely dovish, but it does seem that there are growing divisions within the Council. With wage growth and core inflation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to keep interest rates at 0.50% The Bank of Canada’s new-found optimism in the economy means that there is a risk it could raise interest rates very soon, but we don’t think a rate hike next week to 0.75%, from 0.50%, is a foregone... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves unlikely to prompt ECB to delay QE tapering The euro’s rise has not yet been sharp enough to cause a significant tightening of monetary conditions and we doubt that it will dissuade the ECB from tapering QE next year. But a further appreciation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation? It is widely thought that recessions are generally triggered by central banks stepping on the brakes in response to rising inflation. But many recessions have not been preceded by an increase in... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank drops easing bias from forward guidance By indicating that it no longer expects to cut interest rates, the Riksbank has taken a small step toward monetary policy normalisation. While the Bank indicated that it will continue to guard against... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
