Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to be unchanged despite króna’s fall The króna has depreciated fairly sharply since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met. But given our expectation that it will rise again, we do not think the Bank will respond to recent currency... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode At the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, the Fed issued a near-identical statement to the one released in December, which strongly suggests it has no intention of raising interest rates again at... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates to fall to 1.0% in the second half of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th February, but its new forecasts to be published in the Statement on... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly NAFTA in the firing line President Donald Trump sees the renegotiation of NAFTA as an opportunity to close the trade deficit with Mexico and return manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s possible that he could gain modest... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Era of global QE not over yet The widespread pick-up in activity and rebound in inflation in advanced economies during recent months has reduced the pressure for central banks to ease policy further. But only in the US do we... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q4’s growth deals another blow to project fear The solid 0.6% expansion in UK GDP in the fourth quarter of last year provided further evidence that the vote to leave the European Union has so far had little discernible adverse effect on the UK... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with steady economic growth. But they still point to inflation undershooting the ECB’s target. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch A less challenging trade-off The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faces a less challenging trade-off between supporting the economy and controlling inflation. It will probably upgrade the growth projections in its Inflation Report... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ poised to scale back bond purchases The Bank of Japan appears to have reduced the number of short-term JGB auctions it conducts this month, paving the way for a reduction in the volume of purchases this year. However, an increase in the... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan on prolonged hold The Bank of Japan will probably extend the deadlines for some of its lending programmes by one year at the upcoming meeting. But having upgraded its assessment of the economy at the December meeting... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed in wait-and-see mode until details of fiscal stimulus emerge Following its rate hike at last December’s meeting, the Fed will remain in wait-and-see mode until it has more clarity on the magnitude, composition and timing of the anticipated fiscal stimulus. We... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates to remain at record lows this year The Hungarian MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged earlier today and the accompanying statement remained dovish in spite of a jump in inflation at the end of 2016. Looking ahead, with growth... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 4.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, was due largely to hikes in regulated fuel prices. But core inflation also rose further as the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
